World closing in on grim pandemic mark
As the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic shifts to low- and middle-income countries, the global death toll this year looks set within weeks to surpass the 1.8 million recorded in the whole of last year.
Global recorded deaths are rising by about 13,000 daily, and disease modellers expect the situation to get worse before cases and deaths begin to decline. This year already, 1.4 million Covid-19 deaths have been reported worldwide.
Until the northern winter, the pandemic did most damage in Europe and North America, where more than 70 per cent of cases were occurring. Thanks to advancing vaccination, those continents now account for little more than a fifth of new cases.
Now the virus is ripping through Latin America and Asia. India has set a new record for the number of coronavirus infections and deaths in a day, although many epidemiologists assume these numbers are underestimates.
The World Health Organisation reports that in the past week, India has accounted for almost half of the 5.6 million global infections, and a quarter of the 91,000 deaths. As rates fall sharply in countries that are administering vaccines, the pandemic is spreading uncontrollably in parts of Asia and South America.
In addition to the loss of life and suffering caused to local people, the new phase potentially threatens countries recovering from the pandemic with the reimportation of new variants not covered by vaccines developed so far.
Putting aside the reliability of Indian statistics, other countries have recorded higher per capita death rates in the past week, including Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay.
India’s surge, which has come after huge religious festivals and mass election events, is spreading to other south Asian countries, including Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal.
Last month Thailand had more new cases than the total for the whole of last year. Infections in the Philippines also peaked in April, and Cambodia is imposing draconian local lockdowns. Japan announced yesterday that it is extending a state of emergency for Tokyo and other big cities which should have ended on Wednesday.
A top official at the World Health Organisation says the explosive number of coronavirus cases is only partly driven by the variants, warning countries that loosening control measures may worsen the pandemic.
WHO emergencies chief Dr Michael Ryan said the virus had ‘‘huge kinetic energy’’ in certain countries, and leaders who thought vaccination alone would stop the epidemic were mistaken.
‘‘It is being driven both by human behaviour, by the emergence of variants and many other factors,’’ he said. ‘‘We’re expecting the virus to slow down and we’re pushing the accelerators.’’
He admonished some leaders to acknowledge ‘‘the brutal reality’’ of the situation. ‘‘You need to protect your health system. You need to get your oxygen supply sorted out.’’
Ryan said that while new virus variants might help to spread Covid-19, the driver was ‘‘proximity between people’’. Crowds and the mixing of people without protection or handwashing were still potentially dangerous, even with the start of vaccination programmes.
Spain will relax nationwide coronavirus pandemic measures this weekend, including travel restrictions, as its vaccine rollout continues to speed up. However, some regional chiefs are concerned that the six-month national state of emergency will be replaced by a patchwork of conflicting approaches.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has refused to extend the sweeping order that gave legal backing to curfews, social gathering curbs and travel bans across the
country. Each region has taken a different path, however. Cases in Spain surged sharply in January but slowed in mid-March before picking up again.
Meanwhile, a handful of repatriation flights from India to Australia are set to be organised as officials bolster infection controls at the Northern Territory’s quarantine facility to prepare for their arrival.
A ban on flights from India will end on May 15. The first repatriation flights to Darwin will arrive on May 15, 23 and 31, and passengers will be taken to the Howard Springs facility. Another three flights are being looked at to land in other states.
The government argued that the flight ban was necessary to ease pressure on quarantine facilities and prevent a third wave breaking out in Australia. Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said there had been 137 cases of the virus from people returning from India in the past month.