Covid vaccine supply down ‘very much to the wire’

At current rates, New Zealand’s stocks of Pfizer vaccine will be gone within weeks. Data journalist Kate Newton explains why it’s not time to worry – yet. Remaining vaccine stocks in NZ

For several weeks now, the Health Ministry has proudly reported each Wednesday that its Covid-19 vaccination programme is tracking ahead of schedule.

One in 20 adults in New Zealand are now fully vaccinated, though our roll-out lags far behind those of the UK, the US and other countries where vaccination has become a crucial part of curbing soaring rates of Covid19.

Despite delaying vaccinations for the general population (group 4) until late July, the ministry still plans to keep lifting the weekly doses being administered, reaching 125,000 by the end of this month and 200,000 by mid-July. There’s a problem, though. New Zealand has a contract with Pfizer for 10 million doses of its vaccine – enough for everyone in the country.

Shipments of Pfizer have been arriving at a rate of between 50,000 and 80,000 doses a week.

That was plenty while the rollout was gearing up, but we began outstripping that supply a month ago and eating into the vaccine stocks that had built up.

Nearly 635,000 doses of Pfizer had been given out by May 30, exceeding the ministry target of 582,000 by 9 per cent.

At current rates of supply (about 61,000 doses arriving in the country each week) and vaccination (about 100,000 doses administered), we will run out of Pfizer by the week of July 18.

If vaccinations increase each week as planned, that supply (and additional shipments) will be gone two weeks earlier – the week of July 4.

And if the ministry keeps exceeding its own targets by 9 per cent then the country could be out of vaccine before the end of this month.

Last week, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said the ministry was ‘‘carefully calibrating’’ the roll-out while it waited on the details of shipments from Pfizer in July.

‘‘We are intending to use the vaccine we have got in anticipation that more will come,’’ he told a media conference. ‘‘If there is a situation where we need to slow things down for a week or two, we will do that.’’

Pfizer had delivered on its promises so far, he said. ‘‘We’re running it very much to the wire, but we are also very confident.’’

The shipments are meant to be much larger – and they will need to be, to keep up with the intended roll-out. Shipped doses would need to triple, to about 180,000 doses a week, to support the roll-out through to early August.

Things would need to kick up a notch again then, when vaccination of Group 4 begins in earnest.

The ministry did not answer Sunday Star-Times questions about the exact size or frequency of shipments it was expecting from Pfizer next month. A spokesperson said those details would be available this week.

University of Canterbury statistics professor Michael Plank, who has been heavily involved in Covid-19 modelling for the government response, says the prospect of slowing or even halting the rates of vaccination is ‘‘not ideal’’.

‘‘But we do have to be aware that we’re going to be constrained by supply,’’ he says. ‘‘There are still countries that are having big outbreaks with lots of people dying, so it makes sense that those countries are further up the queue [for vaccines] than New Zealand.’’

Bloomfield said that the next vaccine likely to be approved for use in New Zealand is the onedose Janssen, which will be considered by a committee on June 15.

Shipments of Janssen would not arrive until July at the earliest.

So, with a potential slow-down on the horizon, how should the roll-out proceed?

Otago University epidemiologist Michael Baker says that with stocks so low, the Government should be concentrating on making sure everyone in group 1 (frontline border workers and their close contacts) and group 2 (health workers and some highrisk people) is fully vaccinated.

Only 75,000 of 480,000 people in group 2 have been fully vaccinated so far.

‘‘We seem to be moving on to group 3 prematurely,’’ Dr Baker says.

‘‘If vaccine supply is limited, I think it’s very important to follow our plan to get high coverage in group 1 and then group 2 first.’’