How New Zealand might reconnect with the world

It’s been nearly 500 days since New Zealand shut itself off in an effort to keep Covid-19 out. John Anthony looks at how the ‘‘hermit kingdom’’ might once again say kia ora to visitors from far-off lands.

‘‘Vaccination, vaccination, vaccination.’’ That’s how New Zealand will open its borders to countries beyond Australia and the Pacific Islands, Sir Peter Gluckman says.

The University of Auckland professor, Koi Tu¯ director and former chief science adviser to the prime minister says it is clear from overseas evidence that once populations have a high level of vaccination against Covid19, mortality and morbidity rates fall dramatically and the disease can be better managed within a community.

‘‘We’re not there in New Zealand, we’re a long way from it.’’

Opening New Zealand’s borders will depend on not just how many people have been vaccinated but how many vulnerable people have been vaccinated, Gluckman says. ‘‘If we opened the borders now, we would soon have one of the variants in, and we would have some very sick people.’’

But it’s not clear what the vaccination rate needs to be in order to open borders safely, he says.

There is no set target but DirectorGeneral of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield is hoping for 90 per cent coverage by the end of 2021. And the Treasury has made budgeting assumptions based on a significant reopening of the border from January.

Gluckman says given the emergence of more virulent strains, such as the Indian Delta variant, a higher rate of immunisation is needed to reduce community problems.

‘‘There’s no magic number here. The number keeps changing, and it will probably get higher while more and more mutations develop.

‘‘There will be a different variant to worry about in three months’ time and another one in six months’ time.’’

He says our understanding of Covid-19 is developing in real time, and we will get better at managing it but, ultimately, it’s here to stay – much like the flu. And yes, that means accepting New Zealand, like the rest of the world, will have to live with Covid-19 in the community.

‘‘We will not eradicate this virus. It’s impossible to keep New Zealand free of the virus forever.’’

He says the country’s successful elimination strategy has created a psychological and political problem: How do we shift our mindset to accepting the presence of Covid-19 in the community?

Gluckman says it’s harder to get out of an elimination strategy than it is to get into it. ‘‘A judgment will have to be made at some point where the cost of remaining in isolation outweighs the cost of accepting low-level endemism.’’

Although vaccination is the best solution to reopening borders, predeparture and post-arrival rapid testing will also be an important tool in allowing in vaccinated visitors, he says. That may need to be combined with some form of shortened managed isolation or quarantine.

A lot of processes will need to be developed, and put through thorough risk analysis, before such a regime can be implemented. ‘‘I would like to see it happen, don’t get me wrong. I think it could be done but it would need to be quite an intensive effort.’’

Gluckman says New Zealand must open its border at some point, so Kiwis can reconnect with the world for economic, diplomatic, and personal reasons. ‘‘We have to be part of the global commons. The plurality of world views is how a country moves forward. Having seen how other people do things helps us think about how we do things.’’

And it is equally important for international visitors to experience New Zealand, to learn from us, while at the same time providing economic benefits, he says. ‘‘We’re not going to live forever like a hermit kingdom.’’

Tourism is New Zealand’s largest export earner, and it has been crippled by New Zealand’s border closures.

Pre-Covid-19, tourism was worth $41.9 billion a year and contributed 20 per cent to New Zealand’s foreign exchange earnings, Tourism NZ figures show.

The absence of international tourists is estimated to have resulted in $13b less for the industry per year.

The opening of the trans-Tasman bubble on April 19 provided some respite for parts of the industry but the real benefits were not expected until New Zealand’s skifields fully open this month, which also coincides with Australia’s term three school holidays.

However, a freeze last weekend on all quarantine-free travel from Australia, amidst a Covid-19 outbreak there, sparked a wave of cancellations, leaving tourism operators disheartened that their first real influx of overseas visitors in more than a year and a half didn’t eventuate.

In May, the first full month of the trans-Tasman bubble being open, 98,225 people departed New Zealand – nearly 7000 more than the number arriving. That figure was a turnaround from April’s stats, which showed 8000 more travellers came to New Zealand than left.

A Tourism NZ spokeswoman says the first wave of visitors from Australia to New Zealand has been predominantly those seeking to reunite with friends and relatives, along with some business travel.

Many leisure travellers will take a ‘‘wait and see approach’’ and travel pauses will probably influence booking confidence, she says.

Tourism NZ data shows Australians booking trips to New Zealand outnumber New Zealand trips to Australia at a rate of about two to one.

NZ Ma¯ ori Tourism spokeswoman Kiri Atkinson-Crean says Ma¯ ori tourism operators have been especially hard hit by the lack of international tourists, which made up 85 to 95 per cent of customers for some businesses.

‘‘There’s no overstating how difficult it’s been for our Ma¯ ori operators,’’ Atkinson-Crean adds.

Arrivals under the trans-Tasman bubble had demonstrated a yearning for Ma¯ ori experiences which they had missed while borders were shut, she says.

Ensuring the safety of operators and their manuhiri (visitors) is the most important thing to consider when opening New Zealand’s borders.

The primary markets for Ma¯ ori were historically from Britain, Europe, North America and Australia.

Ma¯ ori tourism operators have spent the past 15 months looking inward at their businesses and ensuring they are ‘‘match fit’’ for when the borders open, she says.

University of Otago head of tourism Neil Carr says science will be the ultimate determinant of when borders open.

‘‘Fundamentally, we are at the mercy of the pandemic, and the political reactions to it, which are driven by the medical science,’’ he says. ‘‘So it’s very clear New Zealand is not going to open its borders until it feels that it’s secure to do so. What does that mean for tourism? It has to wait.’’

The tourism industry is very much aware of that now, Carr says. Australia and the Cook Islands were relatively low-risk countries to form bubbles with. ‘‘Where do you look next?’’

There has been talk of expanding the bubble to Singapore or Taiwan but that might not be such a good idea now, given a rise in Covid-19 cases in those countries and other parts of Asia, he explains. ‘‘I can totally understand the very cautious approach.’’

How long before New Zealand opens up entirely is ‘‘the million-dollar question everyone wants an answer to’’, he says.

The tourism sector just needs to get by until then and, for the most part, it is, buoyed by a strong domestic market and the trans-Tasman bubble, he says.

Epidemiologist professor Nick Wilson, of University of Otago’s Wellington department of public health, says border openings are linked to vaccination progress.

It may be safe for New Zealand to allow in vaccinated travellers if their country of origin has a good vaccine uptake, and incoming travellers use tools such as vaccine passports.

If the vaccine uptake here is not at a