Guerrillas could continue the fight

Russia could find itself embroiled in an urban guerrilla war against a highly motivated and wellarmed enemy if it succeeds in occupying and controlling Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine.

Determined citizens throwing petrol bombs at Russian troops and military vehicles will not cow a force as capable and as well-equipped as Russia’s army and special forces.

However, the history of guerrilla and insurgency warfare has shown that if resistance forces are appropriately and consistently armed by sympathetic foreign governments, an invasion force deployed by a military superpower such as Russia can be effectively opposed and even defeated in time.

All Ukrainian males of fighting age have been urged by the Kyiv government to take up arms and confront the Russian troops – which could make it significantly harder for Vladimir Putin to realise his ambition to control the capital and the rest of the country.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have had eight years of experience fighting Russian separatists, backed by Spetsnaz special forces sent into eastern Ukraine by the Kremlin. They have learnt tactics and irregular-force skills which could be passed on to a citizens’ army.

There are already more than 150 territorial defence battalions in existence, established to cover the whole country, which could be used to stir up an armed resistance.

In July last year Ukraine passed a law called the foundations of national resistance, which provides a legal framework for a nationwide resistance campaign. This was aimed at avoiding the worst scenario for the Kyiv government, which would be a guerrilla war involving thousands of enthusiastic patriots taking up arms without any form of controlled or organised structure.