NZ could soon mourn 20 Covid deaths per day
A prominent epidemiologist is warning Kiwis to brace for ‘‘collective grief’’, with as many as 20 Covid deaths a day possible in coming weeks.
However, due to widespread vaccination, New Zealand’s death rate remains comparatively lower than those in countries with similar populations that have lower vaccination rates.
The Ministry of Health reported a daily record of seven deaths of people with Covid-19 on Friday, followed by a further seven deaths yesterday – although the ministry did not clarify whether Covid was the primary cause of the deaths.
Epidemiologist Professor Michael
Baker said he expected higher numbers of daily Covid-related deaths to continue, due to the number of people getting infected.
There were 206,288 active community cases as of Friday, which included those who tested positive in the previous 10 days, with a seven-day average of 19,888 new infections per day.
Yesterday, 18,699 cases were reported, with 853 in hospital and 17 in ICU or HDU.
The 20 deaths reported in the past seven days accounted for almost one in five of the 105 Covidrelated deaths in NZ since the start of the pandemic.
Baker predicted there would soon be 10 to 20 deaths per day, with about 0.5 per cent of those infected dying from the virus.
‘‘There’s going to be a few days where we’re going to feel a collective sense of grief for the lives that have been lost.’’
While the risk of dying of Covid19 was ‘‘vastly less’’ due to New Zealand’s high vaccination rate, those in older age groups or with underlying health conditions are still vulnerable.
New Zealand’s life expectancy increased between 2019 and 2021, at a time when many countries – such as the US, Italy, the UK and France – saw decreased life expectancy, likely due to Covid-related deaths, according to Stats NZ.
‘‘It’s a success that people are living longer lives, but it means there are more vulnerable people around,’’ Baker said.
Despite the expected increase in daily deaths, New Zealand is reporting fewer deaths than countries with similar populations that saw case numbers peak earlier in the pandemic.
That included Singapore, which has a population of about 5.45 million. As of Friday (local time), it had reported 1129 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, with 91 per cent of its population having received two Covid-19 vaccines, and 69 per cent boosted.
According to Johns Hopkins University data, Singapore’s outbreak first peaked in October, with some 13 deaths per day. It peaked again in late February, with about 12 deaths per day.
Hong Kong has a population of about 7.51 million, with 69.8 per cent having had two vaccines, and 26.3 per cent boosted as of March 6, according to data from the University of Oxford.
Baker said Hong Kong’s Omicron wave was similar to New Zealand’s. However, it was seeing more deaths, with a current seven-day average of 270 a day, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Hong Kong had less vaccine coverage for its older population, Baker said.
‘‘That’s the kind of experience we’d have if we didn’t have that [vaccine] coverage.’’
The Ministry of Health said Saturday’s seven deaths were a reminder that Omicron could cause serious illness or death, either directly or combined with other health conditions.