Te Pāti Māori and NZ First: Who’ll wear kingmaker’s crown?
There is an awful lot of water to go under the bridge before next year’s election. But the currents have changed, and Labour will struggle to stay the course to victory. It was never likely that Jacinda Ardern’s party would win another single-party majority.
But last week’s 1 News/Kantar poll sharpens the sense that one of the minor parties will decide the future government. National pulled just ahead of Labour in the TV poll for the first time in two years.
With ACT firmly married to National, and the Greens wed to Labour, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori are now in play.
Both sit on two per cent in the poll. Winston Peters looks like a spent force. A trial over allegations of improper political donations involving the New Zealand First Foundation is due to take place mid-year.
Peters has struggled to get traction on any issue since he left office in 2020. For a very long time, his roguish opportunism has been an accepted, even indulged, feature of our democratic landscape.
But his support, and tour, of Parliament’s occupation may have been a step too far. Figures in his own party were horrified by his misjudgement.
The experience of the previous parliamentary term has made Ardern’s team very wary of any future relationship – with senior staff said to be prepared to quit if a new coalition were to eventuate.
Peters’ visit – the day after human waste was thrown at police by the demonstrators – has only solidified their antipathy. When asked if she could work with Peters again, Ardern remarked his actions demonstrated the ‘‘strong distance’’ between them.
But the golden rule of New Zealand politics is: never rule out Winston Peters. Especially Winston
Peters armed with a wedge issue.
A common thread in Peters’ most recent press releases is co-governance (the arrangement for negotiated decision-making between iwi and other Māori organisations and central government). He argues Labour has no mandate for the policies, which are ‘‘designed to ‘white and brown’ ant New Zealand’s democracy’’.
His position is consistent with past opposition to the incorporation of the Treaty of Waitangi into legislation and policy. Before Don Brash, as a
National Party MP he was calling for ‘‘one law for all’’. Last year he railed about increased state usage of te reo Māori, including ‘Aotearoa’.
Suspicion about a separatist government Māori agenda has been growing since the emergence of the He Puapua report, and galvanised by opposition to plans to overhaul how the country’s Three Waters services are managed.
Stoking a culture war is too vague a strategy to campaign on, especially in an election that will be dominated by the economy. But there is nothing Peters loves more than a referendum. Especially on contentious issues.
His ancestry gives him the freedom to exploit the issue and whip up fears of ‘‘Māorification’’ without being labelled a racist. A strong stance on the issue of Māori sovereignty would also endear him to some older, provincial voters in National’s base who are yet to forgive him for handing power to Ardern in 2017.
Assuming he can’t win an electorate, Peters will have to work hard to reach five per cent. And Te Pāti Māori already have the jump on NZ First, holding Waiariki. On the face of it, either side could offer co-leader Rawiri Waititi a deal, guaranteeing the party’s return and sweetening any post-election negotiations. But the reality is more complicated: Labour wants to scrap the coat-tail rule that brought in co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer.
To offer a lifeline, but campaign on a change that would decrease Te Pāti Māori representation would be hypocritical. Labour also urged voters in the Māori electorates not to split their vote in 2020.
National has pledged to stand in the Māori seats for the first time in almost decades. It would be strange then to campaign only for the party vote.
For now, Te Pāti Māori is holding Peters’ kingmaker crown. And Ngarewa-Packer has demonstrated she is a worthy successor, making no commitments. Her pledge to work only with those who are focused on Treaty-centric policies threw down the gauntlet to both National and Labour.
The poll indicates a sea change. And a rising tide of Māori voters could decide the future government.
Peters’ support, and tour, of Parliament’s occupation may have been a step too far. Figures in his own party were horrified by his misjudgement.