For Labour to arrest ‘inevitable’ decline
here or somewhere else.
Labour has several things going for it.
The prime minister remains Labour’s chief electoral asset, although no longer ascendent. Importantly, her recent trip to Singapore and Japan restored one of the positive inputs into any prime minister’s popularity – a bigger stage.
Images of engaging with other leaders are priceless, and were denied during Covid.
Rebalancing the prime minister’s international and domestic exposure is timely.
Focusing on trade opportunities is also smart, with the corollary that delivery is never assured, especially in Europe, let alone with the United States.
Curia’s last poll also reveals that while support for Labour in Auckland is no longer commanding, they still lead in the region most crucial to their reelection.
Likewise, and somewhat confoundingly,
Labour holds a big lead in provincial cities. Importantly, it has two more budgets to try to win back those who have decamped to National.
However, if the prime minister remains Labour’s chief asset, she is also, by virtue of leading the response to the disruptive events that have dominated her tenure, over-exposed. She has been in office for four-and-a-half years, but it seems longer. Covid hasn’t helped, nor does social media.
The sharply rising cost of living on the back of galloping inflation demands a political reset, but the signs so far reveal a government stubbornly advancing a reform agenda far broader than is politically prudent for their situation or deliverable given their track record.
There are several areas of stress: law and order, Three Waters, cost of living, and co-governance. Policies still to land will do so under tougher political conditions, notwithstanding good intentions.
Ardern’s trajectory is different from Holyoake and Key in both volatility and velocity. Time is getting short for Labour, and it will need to move fast.
The sharply rising cost of living on the back of galloping inflation demands a political reset, but the signs so far reveal a government stubbornly advancing a reform agenda far broader than is politically prudent for their situation or deliverable given their track record.