No good news in by-election for Labour
Labour has been soundly thrashed in Hamilton West, a seat it has held since 2020 – and a jubilant National Party says it sends the Government a clear signal about the next election.
With 100% of the vote counted, National’s candidate Tama Potaka won with 6629 votes, with Labour’s Georgie Dansey trailing by 2285 on 4344 votes.
Disgraced former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma, who resigned from Parliament after a bitter falling out with the party hierarchy, got just 1156 votes under the banner of his fledgling Momentum Party.
Sharma said the vote showed that ‘‘there’s definitely an antigovernment sentiment’’.
In contrast to the recent Tauranga byelection, National should have been the underdog in Hamilton West.
Sharma won the seat for Labour with a huge majority in 2020, although the seat had previously been held by National’s Tim Macindoe, which is why it is often called a bellwether seat.
Chris Bishop, National’s campaign chair for 2023, said ‘‘the people of Hamilton West have sent a message to this government. Change is coming.’’
National leader Christopher Luxon heralded the result as ‘‘an encouraging end to the year and a great start to [election year] 2023.’’
Dansey visited Potaka and conceded as the vote became clear.
Earlier, when Dansey arrived to cheering Labour supporters at Community Waikato’s offices in Hamilton, she acknowledged things were not looking too good, nor was she surprised, given polling putting National in front.
However, she told supporters she was ‘‘super proud of us and what we’ve achieved’’.
She thanked Labour supporters and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern for their support, and confirmed she would be Labour’s candidate at the general election.
On whether losing a bellwether seat was a sign of the times for
Labour next year, she quoted former Prime Minister Helen Clark. ‘‘[She] has said herself that byelections are crazy beasts.’’
Local Government Minister and local MP Nanaia Mahuta said the result reflected the circumstances of the by-election, and some difficult times for the Government: ‘‘I think the media narrative of calling this a bellwether seat is not the correct narrative ... Nobody wanted to have a byelection and in many ways that created challenges in itself we all know.
‘‘Also as we head into Christmas it’s been really hard this year. People are feeling the weight of a really difficult period of time and through all of that Georgie [Dansey] has presented a positive campaign, that’s why we’re so proud of her.’’
The by-election trouncing comes off the back of a horror few weeks for Labour, after a backflip over its
controversial Three Waters legislation, which became embroiled in controversy over a contentious clause entrenching an aspect of the law.
The Government has also been under pressure over the cost of living crisis, with the Reserve Bank warning that the economy is heading into a recession next year.
The country is also experiencing a Covid surge just as the Christmas holidays are on the horizon.
Labour’s popularity has taken a beating in the polls and the most recent surveys suggest National and Act could govern alone.
Luxon’s popularity as preferred prime minister also appears to be on the rise, although Ardern still remains the preferred PM by most.
Nga¯i Tai ki Ta¯maki chief Pataka lives in Auckland but said he would move to Hamilton if he won.
However, it has not been all plain sailing; it was reported while on the campaign trail that he appeared to be at odds with National over the issue of cogovernance with iwi, based on a law journal paper he penned while a student at Victoria University.