The Trump moment in British politics is over

The Tories may appear vulnerable to populism but a right-wing surge? Don’t hold your breath, says

THE leaders of the populist tribes of Britain have slain a chicken and two hedgehogs, had their favourite academics and pundits examine the entrails and declared the omens to be good. As well they might. After 12 years in power the Conservatives are in deep trouble, far behind in the polls, presiding over high inflation and trains so far from running on time that they don’t run at all and, despite all the rhetoric, record net immigration. Meanwhile patrician figures such as Sajid Javid, who just months ago was a credible candidate for leadership, are retreating to sit out the coming defeat while Isabel Oakeshott writes their memoirs. I speak metaphorically. Oh, and Matt Hancock, like a Disney character, is off to discover ‘‘a whole new world’’.

Under these circumstances, where is a low-tax libertarian, a culture warrior or a 2019 red wall Tory voter to turn? There has developed (say the auguries) a giant gap in the political market to the Conservative right, just aching to be filled. Particularly after an election where the Tories could be so badly defeated it would take years for them to recover.

And these days political insurgents enjoy access to the public previously denied them. There’s Musk Twitter, YouTube and other social media. From the GB News channel and from other talk-show hosts they enjoy steady sympathetic coverage, in which they and their complaints are treated seriously. Funds aren’t necessarily a problem as men (and they do seem all to be men) with money are prepared to fund parties of the right. If these parties could attract high-profile defectors from a membermoulting Tory party, they might be seen as possessing impetus.

Then there is Sir Keir Starmer. By not being Jeremy Corbyn and not being scary (and indeed being criticised for being insufficiently dramatic), the Labour leader might make rightwing voters more relaxed about voting for the angry party they most want, even if it risks letting Labour in. In those circumstances, why not go for it? Finally there is Rishi Sunak, contending with a toxic inheritance (partly inherited of course from himself). Bereft Boris Johnson-lovers (such as the billionaire Lord Cruddas) desperately seeking charisma might also walk.

Nearly a decade ago my former colleague Tim Montgomerie had fun inventing a new alignment for British politics. There would be two parties on the left and centre and two parties on the right and centre. And one of these would be a nationalist, anti-immigration, ultra-patriotic, low-tax force which could even supersede the centrist Tories as the main party of the right.

It was a game but it had a serious point. At the 1922 general election, a split in the Liberals led to Labour becoming one of the country’s two main parties. By 1964, the first election I covered journalistically (for Radio Gospel Oak, my primary school’s news station) the Liberals were down to four seats. In 1983 it nearly happened again when the Liberal-Social Democratic Alliance came within 2.3% of overtaking Labour in the popular vote, while admittedly winning only a tenth of the seats.

So history suggests it can very occasionally be done. Just. And the times appear suitably out of joint. But what about the political organisations anxious to take on the role? Essentially there are four. The biggest and best funded appears to be Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party of Nigel Farage (he is party president), led by a property millionaire called Richard Tice. Tice regularly claims Reform’s membership is booming, but in the absence of any figures for that membership, past or present, it is impossible to check.

Next there’s the Reclaim Party, the vehicle for the actor Laurence Fox, who was radicalised by appearing on BBC Question Time where he challenged ‘‘white privilege’’. Fox’s subsequent social media posts led to the vastly wealthy Brexit donor Jeremy Hosking giving him £1 million (NZ$1.9m) to set up a party.

Third is the rump Ukip. And fourth, the peculiar and accidental residue of the old Social Democratic Party, which (like the others) is anti-woke and anti-migrant but unlike them is not low-tax or libertarian. For some reason the old Revolutionary Communist Party cadres who joined the Brexit Party en masse and now gather round the Spiked publication and are never far away from a TV studio seem to favour the SDP. It may not yet have influence but it has influencers.

Four right-wing parties is three too many. In October, Reform and the SDP announced a ‘‘general election pact’’ in which they pledged to ‘‘co-operate in a significant number of constituencies’’, and in South Yorkshire to stand candidates under ‘‘joint branding’’. There’s no reason to think Reclaim couldn’t be persuaded to take part in such a coalition.

Now, when I snap my fingers, wake up. SNAP. The problem is that this is all just a fantasy. In the first instance there is absolutely nothing in the electoral performance of these outfits to suggest anything other than embarrassment. At the Chester by-election last week, Reform managed 2.7% of the vote, following their 1.7% in Wakefield. Reclaim polled 375 votes at the North Shropshire byelection. The SDP have elected a councillor in Leeds and that’s it.

In national polls, to great excitement from some entrailreaders, Reform has occasionally got to 9%. However most pollsters give them 4-6%. And you don’t get realignment in a first past the post system on 6% of the vote. Or even 25%. And although these parties all support proportional representation they’ll never be in a position to legislate for it.

And there’s a lesson from Labour. In 2019 Jeremy Corbyn tested the system to its limits. How far could you go to destroy one of the two great parties? Three years later that same party is 20 points ahead and the hardnosed Starmerites who stuck with it are vindicated. It is a fair bet that however low the Conservatives are now – as after 1997 – they will be back one day.

The logic of this is fairly ineluctable but is usually met with a version of the ‘‘revolt on the right’’ proposition. Ah yes, this runs, but even at 6-10% the threat to the Tories from defecting culture warriors, nationalists and libertarians will ginger that party to the right. The populists will lose but in losing they will win.

To which I reply, look at the polls. People aren’t deserting the Conservatives to the right, but overwhelmingly to the centre. That’s where a rejuvenated conservatism will have to base itself. That’s who we are. The Trump moment in British politics is over.

AP, GETTY Not so long ago, the Boris Johnson and Donald Trump alliance, main photo, across the Atlantic promised a firm swing to the right in the UK. But now the Labour Party of Sir Keir Starmer, above left, looks likely to poach voters from the Tories of PM Rishi Sunak, above right, while the election performance of populist leaders such as Brexit Party president Nigel Farage, below left, and the Reclaim Party’s Laurence Fox, below right, doesn’t ‘‘suggest anything other than embarrassment’’.