Cautious strategist Xi walks a fine line

China’s President Xi Jinping has tried to strike a balance between siding with Vladimir Putin against the West without explicitly backing Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Xi is determined to avoid any course of action that would seriously damage his relations with Washington and, more importantly, his aim of overtaking the United States as the world’s economic and military superpower.

While Putin wants Beijing to be more supportive of his military aggression, to the point of replenishing Moscow’s dwindling supplies of drones, Xi will have calculated that supplying weapons to Russia would destroy his balancing act with Washington. The US has repeatedly warned Beijing against providing weapons to Moscow, hinting at dire consequences.

Military co-operation between China and Russia dates to the 1990s, and includes technological transfers for aerospace engine development, and regular joint armed forces exercises.

Since 2007, more than 70% of Chinese arms imports have been from Russia, and the People’s Liberation Army still relies on Russian-made engines for many of its aircraft.

Overt arming of Russia for its war in Ukraine would benefit Putin more than it would Xi, who is struggling to cope with an economy affected by the pandemic and a surge in Covid infections.

The last thing Xi wants is a further tightening of economic sanctions by the US. Selling Chinese armed drones for use in Ukraine would lead to even harsher penalties.

Xi is a cannier strategist than Putin. The Russian leader has a bullin-the-china-shop approach, taking action based on his conviction that might will win. His botched invasion of Ukraine has exposed the limits of this approach.

Xi, however, has learned from Putin’s gamble that military superiority does not necessarily win wars. It’s the same lesson that the US learnt in Vietnam.

Pledging to join Putin in trying to conquer Ukraine would be an alliance too far for the Chinese leader. Yet if and when he decides to take military action to forcibly reunite Taiwan with the mainland, Xi will want Putin on side.