Kyiv pleads for more armour
Western allies are being urged to send hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles to Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed a new commander and laid plans to deploy 150,000 reservists who were conscripted during the northern autumn.
Russia claimed its first victory in months yesterday, as Ukrainian troops began withdrawing from the town of Soledar after a battle that cost thousands of lives. Its fall gives the Russians a greater chance of seizing nearby Bakhmut, which controls access to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the last big cities in Ukrainian hands in Donetsk.
Western intelligence indicates that Putin could announce a fresh mobilisation soon, emboldened by polling suggesting that, despite many setbacks on the battlefield, Russian support for the war remains high.
If a decision is taken within weeks, as many as 500,000 extra Russians could be trained and sent to the front by April, when Ukraine’s winter mud will have dried sufficiently to allow a big offensive.
‘‘There are serious preparations going on across Russia’s regional recruitment offices,’’ one Western official said.
‘‘The Kremlin has done private polling. Ordinary Russians are anxious about the war, but they are also unwilling to tolerate defeat.’’
Ukraine has as many soldiers in the battlefield as Russia, Western officials believe, but General Valery Gerasimov, the
new Russian commander, will need to outnumber Ukrainian forces by three to one in order to capture more territory.
Western defence ministers will meet in Germany next week to agree new support that could mean tanks being sent to Ukraine for the first time.
Britain is preparing to send 14 Challenger 2s in an attempt to encourage other allies – notably Germany and the United States – to provide theirs. Poland says it is willing to provide a similar number of Leopard 2s.
General Valery Zaluzhny, the
Ukrainian chief of the general staff, has said that Kyiv needs 300 tanks and 600 to 700 armoured vehicles to recapture its territory and defeat Russia, a figure not considered unreasonable in some Western capitals despite jitters in Washington and Berlin.
General Sir Richard Barrons, a former senior British commander in Iraq and Afghanistan, said tank training that usually lasted months would have to be condensed into weeks for Ukraine to be ready to launch a spring offensive.
‘‘The Ukrainians feel they have to maintain momentum and a sense of success or the West will lose interest,’’ he said.
Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed General Armageddon, was replaced by Gerasimov as Russia’s highest-ranking military officer this week in a power struggle that also involved Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former petty criminal who heads the Wagner Group.
Prigozhin’s mercenaries now make up a quarter of the Russian forces in Ukraine, and may even have taken command of the battle for Bakhmut, Western officials believe.
Professor Michael Clarke, the former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, said the Kremlin was trying to reassert its authority by appointing Gerasimov and readying Russian forces for an offensive in the spring.
‘‘The appointment of Gerasimov is a response to Prigozhin and (Ramzan) Kadyrov (the warlord leader of Chechnya) both overplaying their hand,’’ he said.
‘‘The command chain is tightening up at the Kremlin end to defend itself against these wild warlords running around in Ukraine itself. Prigozhin has allowed Wagner fighters to go on camera and describe Putin, the Kremlin and the Russian armed forces as shit.’’
Military experts believe that Russia will launch its multipronged attack in the spring to divert Ukrainian resources away from Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russian warships left Novorossiysk this week, prompting renewed fears of a landing from the Black Sea. Gerasimov could also be tempted to send troops on another foray into northern Ukraine from Belarus.
Neither offensive is likely to result in Russia gaining more territory, but Russian generals may be hoping to drain Ukrainian resources from the main fighting.
Despite the Ukrainian fears, there is little to suggest that Gerasimov is a first-rate tactician. Slavishly loyal to Putin, it was he who planned the initial disastrous invasion of Ukraine.