What’s in store for ’24 across New Zealand?
If anything is for certain, the past few years have taught us you can’t predict what’ll happen. But look, we’re going to try. Julie Jacobson and Virginia Fallon asked the country’s brightest to crystal-ball gaze.
So that was 2023. Over, done with, cooked. In a few hours, hello 2024. Flag the usual New Year resolution drama - less texting, more exercise, be nicer - humbug. We’re here for the crystal-ball gazing, a deep dive into the 12 months ahead.
If that great seer Nostradamus is to be believed, we’re in for a tumultuous year. Climate chaos, tsunamis, famine, a new pope. It’s all in the good book of Les Prophéties, published way, way back in 1555.
Fast forward 460-plus years and an Ipsos predictions survey of 25,000 people in 34 countries released this month notes that overall, optimism appears to be on the rise, with 70% of respondents thinking 2024 will be a better year than 2023.
However, the 1000 Kiwis who took part were less sanguine, predicting the new year will bring higher interest rates, unemployment, inflation and global temperatures. A good 30% of them also expect Donald Trump to be re-elected as US president and just 22% expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2024.
But we’re not here to take their word for it, or rely on centuries-old prognostications. We asked those in the know for their best guesses for 2024.
Tory Whanau, Wellington mayor. “Wellington will have the most sunshine hours in the country.”
Leader of the Opposition Chris Hipkins. “The Warriors will win a grand final for the first time and New Zealand will have a settled year with no major disasters.”
Marisa Bidois, CEO Restaurant Association NZ. “Some businesses will continue to experience slower trade and others will continue to see stronger customer numbers. While demand for skilled workers in the hospitality industry will remain high, the shortages will be less severe. Look for a recovery towards the end of ’24.”
Shihad bass player Karl Kippenberger, one of Wellington (and NZ’s) favourite musical sons, predicts his demise. Please no. “It’s hard to think past that it’s likely I will be replaced by AI by the end of 2024.”
ANZ, on the housing market: “House prices will rise by 4% ... high interest rates have squeezed people’s ability to afford a do-up, with sharp rises in construction costs not helping the case for a new bathroom or kitchen. As inflation eases and interest rates decline, we expect demand for houses in need of some DIY to pick up, as first-home buyers become a larger share of the market.”
Geoff, Justine, Finn and Gabe Ross, whose Lake Hāwea Station is the first NZ farm to be certified zero carbon. “The biodiversity crisis will become as critical as the climate crisis and eco-luxury tourism will be in growth, assuaging the guilt of highend tourists and creating a vital and highly profitable niche for discerning long-haul travellers who come to far-flung NZ.”
Sam Stubbs, founder and CEO of KiwiSaver fund Simplicity and self-proclaimed “most hated person in finance”, whose annual “Wastie” award goes to the most egregious waste of taxpayers’ money. This year’s was the aborted TVNZ-RNZ merger. “The Government will begin a consultation process for Auckland’s second harbour crossing, with a three and six-year self-destruct button.”
Tamatha Paul, Wellington Central MP who jumped from council chamber to the big House after the once red city turned Green following September’s election. She’s picking 2024 to be the year of protest. “The biggest in our history in terms of scale. Mainly around climate change with a major strike on April 5, and union and Te Tiriti protests. And something iconic will happen at Waitangi this year - Steven Joyce dildo level or Don Brash mud level - because Māori are not happy at all.”
Duncan Garner, broadcaster. “I predict we’ll bounce back and refuse to stay in this recession for long. I hope, rather than predict, we’ll get our confidence back as a nation and do better than ever before. And as much as I hope otherwise, Razor will find it much tougher going than we all expected, but we will be more forgiving than we were to Ian Foster.”
Dame Fiona Kidman, author. “The three-way Government will stumble along until the end of 2024, when things begin to fall apart provoked by protests on a number of fronts. In particular, school teachers will rebel against authoritarian approaches to teaching methods, given that most are now effectively teaching children from diverse cultural groups with a variety of needs.
“There will be increasing pain over the abolition of Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority, and the intended downgrading of te reo. More and more people will take to the streets to raise their concerns.
“Anne Enright will win a second Booker Prize for her novel The Wren, The Wren, although New Zealand readers may find the last chapter unsettling. New Zealand fiction
“Something iconic will happen at Waitangi – Steven Joyce dildo level or Don Brash mud level – because Māori are not happy at all.” Tamatha Paul, right
will be a close call, but three women and one man will be shortlisted for the Jann Medlicott Ockham Fiction Prize. The prize for a writer's first work of fiction will go to a book that examines concepts of justice.
“The arts budget will not increase. But here is the good news. Writers and artists will go on with their work, because they are committed to what they do, as the makers of art always have been.”
Ngārimu Blair, chair of Ngāti Whātua:
“It will be another financially tough year that will impact my Māori people the most. Those hapū and hauora providers who are closest and best skilled to limit the damage to those most in need will be in high demand
in this Government as they can deliver real outcomes from the flaxroots up. I also predict the Auckland Warriors will win their first NRL premiership.”
James Bush, fashion designer: “Right across the board – politically and culturally - things are getting more conservative and fashion is going to reflect that.
“My main prediction for 2024 will be silk shirts and a slightly more proper way of dressing. That'll go for the next 10 years. I don’t think clothes will be necessarily worn in a formal way – not buttoned up and tucked in – the execution will stay relaxed but the formal garments are already sneaking into wardrobes."
And so then we went around our national newsrooms for a taste of what everyday Kiwis expect from the next 12 months.
Wellington will run out of water in February because of leaking pipes. Those mythical water tanks residents are being asked to buy will become valuable bartering tools, while Wellington Water staff on their magical salaries will have had enough, and retreat to their Pauanui baches.
It will still be as difficult as it ever was to
get lunch after 12.30pm, with Kiwis haunted by the possibility they might miss out, thus cleaning out any cabinet food by the time the clock strikes midday. You want a meal? Sorry, the kitchen is closed even though the sign on the door says it doesn’t pack up until 3pm.
Mayor Wayne Brown is bound to put his foot in it again – but Auckland’s mayor has been surprisingly pragmatic about working across political divides, so keep an eye out for major infrastructure announcements, and perhaps this could be the year that a new location is finally decided for
Ports of Auckland.
People will continue to buy up fireworks on the only two days of the year it’s allowed, and stash them away for every other “celebratory” event - Christmas, new year, his 21st, bang, bang and bang. Sorry dogs, sorry horses, sorry, not sorry.
Swimmer Lewis Clareburt, who quit Wellington for Auckland after butting heads over, among other things, access to lanes and his choice of training music (Top 50 apparently), will win Olympic gold, crediting the ease with which he does so to a change in listening habits. Handel rules. #watermusic
Crocs will be so last year. Now what you gonna do with all that plastic?
There will be a major Cook Strait
emergency after a mechanical failure aboard a ferry. It will turn out that decisions on a rescue, or salvage, tugboat have made no solid progress. Political parties will blame each other.
Auckland’s beaches will continue as biohazards, with regular poo spills that make swimming a risky business. Remember to check the Safeswim website before getting in the water – even if it looks OK.
National’s campaign to start construction on a second Mount Victoria tunnel in Wellington this term will fall flat. The Government will confirm the delay before 2024 is out and blame it on the state of the inherited books. But the delay will be aided by a judicial review or two, an unknowntill-now heritage issue, a problem of where to put all the dirt and rock that comes out of the hole, and projected costs soaring.
In the Year of the Dragon, Cantabrians will see the biggest dragon dance show at the Bridge of Remembrance on February 4. The Christchurch dance team has launched a Givealittle page to ship the dragon and costumes from China.
Enough people are going to do the “no buy year” trend that Gen Z will be accused of killing malls in 2024.
We’ll find a new way to say “lean into”. And while we’re at it, we’ll also find new language (we hope) for “burnout”, “gas in the tank” and “quiet quitting”.
The number of public service staff in Wellington will drop, as the Government promised, but the number of new companies set up to contract to the Government will increase. The net taxpayer saving will be zero and possibly negative after redundancy payments are counted.
Dunedin students will try to resurrect the
Undie 500, undeterred by the university which will threaten expulsion.
Gore mayor Ben Bell and chief executive Stephen Parry will patch things up after finding out that they are actually distantly related. North Islanders will still scratch their heads over where the town of Gore actually is.
The nation’s roads will be chaos - not just because of the potholes and constant works but due to our predicted inability to understand bilingual signs. “I only read the top line!” muddled motorists will cry, “and what's a kura anyway?”
There really is some-Finn for everyone in NZ’s premier musical whānau as young drummer-singer Elliot Finn bursts into the limelight. The daughter of Tim, niece to Neil, cousin of Liam and brother to Harper has been a regular on stage since she was a teen and has now created a double act, Elliot and Vincent, with former high school buddy Vincent Cherry. Rather like a psychrock White Stripes, they mesmerised Spark Arena supporting Royal Blood this month and reportedly wowed international music industry visitors at a symposium earlier in the year. The 21-year-old Elliot has an incredible voice and a bold, tub-thumping drumming sound that gives this duo a unique style and sound.
Chaos at Waiheke and Downtown ferry terminals will come to a head as commuters, families, visitors and tourism businesses call out ferry operators for their delays, breakdowns and travellers left on the wharfs. Now the island has Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as an occasional holiday-home resident, there's also a distant chance of an accord between him and Greens MP Chlöe Swarbrick over finding a solution to the travel woes.