Political predictions
Following Andrew Little and Kelvin Davis’ retirements, there will be even more resignations from Labour as its most senior MPs look to move on from a turbulent year and humiliating election loss.
Labour’s finance spokesman, Grant Robertson, will hold on long enough for a successor to find their feet but will be out the door by the end of the year, along with veteran MP Damien O’Connor. Leader Chris Hipkins is digging in for the long haul and looks safe for now, particularly while his personal popularity holds up. But a run of bad polls could turn the tide, in which case former Attorney-General David Parker, who was demoted alongside outgoing former minister Little and O’Connor, may stick around with a view to filling in as interim
leader while Carmel Sepuloni and Kieran McAnulty jockey for position.
Greens co-leader James Shaw will announce his resignation, while Chlöe Swarbrick’s Auckland Central win makes her a sitter to replace him. Marama Davidson will stay on as her co-leader.
On the Government side, if Treasury predictions of mounting job losses come to pass, alongside mounting protests over the
Government’s handling of race relations, it could make for a winter of discontent for National. There will be at least one ministerial resignation before the end of the year after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon makes it clear he expects his executive to meet high standards, while the past will come back to haunt a backbencher on the ACT or NZ First list, which could force them out of Parliament.