Our political predictions for 2018
On Sunday, our team of political reporters had their predictions for
2017 marked, scraping in a pass mark at 107 points out of a possible
200.
Now, our Parliament bureau once again consults the star charts, predicting what we think
2018 has instore for the new Government and the rest of the sad creatures who call this building home.
We’ll be back to mark it on December 31, 2018.
THE LIST
1. National retains a polling lead on Labour, but it narrows somewhat, as NZ First’s share of the vote remains low. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stays ahead in the preferred PM stakes.
2. National leader Bill English announces that after 28 years in Parliament and two election campaigns he won’t stay on to see a third as leader in 2020. As he goes he cites the need for ‘‘generational change’’.
3. The competition to replace English is fierce but mostly kept away from the prying eyes of the public. Likely contenders will include Simon Bridges, Nikki Kaye, Amy Adams, Jonathan Coleman and perhaps a couple of wildcards. Steven Joyce and Todd Muller?
4. KiwiBuild – the plan to build
100,000 affordable homes over 10 years – stumbles out of the gate, and the Government aren’t all that clear about how many houses have been built. Estimates have it at less than 300, but the Government insists it will ramp up much more in the following year.
5. A member of the Trump family visits New Zealand and is met with protest.
6. The prime minister will announce her engagement to Clarke Gayford, delighting many but causing some to dismiss it as a ‘‘distraction’’.
7. The Budget will feature few goodies, much of the cash already being spent in the mini-Budget. But there will be one or two headline-catching surprises.
8. A backbench MP will come under fire for a professional, or unprofessional as it were, indiscretion.
9. Kelvin Davis will stay on as deputy leader of Labour, despite a few more bad patches as acting PM.
10. The Green Party will select Eugenie Sage as co-leader, surprising many who assumed Marama Davidson or Julie Anne Genter would take up the role.
11. The Kermadec Sanctuary Bill will be pulled from the ballot and cause a major rift between the Greens and NZ First. But after the spat, the Greens will back down and vote along Government lines.
12. David Seymour’s End of Life Choice Bill will end up narrowly passing following a divisive national debate and some changes in select committee. The bill will not go to referendum.
13. The Prime Minister will be forced to require the discipline of a NZ First member of the executive.
14. Abortion law reform will not be openly pursued by the Government, despite a promise to take it out of the Crimes Act.
15. National’s Nicola Willis will enter Parliament when a list MP retires – likely Nicky Wagner.
16. Foreign Minister Winston Peters will be involved in international efforts to talk down North Korea.
17. A natural disaster will put the Government books out, breaking the Government’s Budget Responsibility Rules. Steven Joyce will still not have much support for his $11 billion hole.
18. There will be a political bombshell that will see the ousting of a minister.
19. Iwi leaders will take fresh water rights all the way back to the Supreme Court, after a broken promise by the Government to address the issue.
20. Jian Yang will remain on in the National Party pulling in serious donations, but negative stories about possible Chinese Government influence will continue to swirl. An inquiry will be talked about but not actually launched.