EV evolution in need of a push

The nation’s transition to electric vehicles has been in second gear, if that, for far too long. The greater sense of urgency now being shown by the Government is warranted, given the sorry inertia of so many years spent in the transformational slow lane.

Our national vehicle fleet is characterised by cheaper, dirtier and less safe cars than the countries with which we like to compare ourselves. The rising emissions that are in conflict with our climate crisis agenda reflect this.

Even those among us who can somehow, remarkably, manage to be OK with that are going to find that it’s not just our own Government’s agenda that’s working against them.

As EVs become cheaper, the newproduct combustion alternatives will get more expensive, unless we’re untroubled by the thought of becoming a repository for exactly the sort of ageing higher-emission vehicles that have so emphatically contributed to the global mess in which we now find ourselves.

That is not something the Government is likely to tolerate.

Its discount for people buying new EVs, of up to $8625, is the new carrot. The stick is applied on the flipside: a fee on fossil fuel-powered vehicles of $5175 for a new import, or $2875 for a used one.

It’s a rough road that lies ahead. For one thing, the motoring world is hardly well-stocked with EV alternatives to heavier vehicles; so farmers, tradies and larger rural families who need them have a case that they are being unfairly hammered.

There may be an argument for distinguishing between them and the readily-scorned urban or suburban motorist who fancies a new double-cab ute that will wind up being seldom used as anything more intrepid than a runabout.

Though it’s true that EVs are already generally cheaper to run over their lifetime than combustion vehicles, that’s neither here nor there if you can’t afford to buy them in the first place.

The new discount will reduce the purchase price gap, as will global trends – BloombergNEF research suggests that electric vehicles will reach price parity with petrol and diesel equivalents by next year, and become cheaper to produce by 2027.

But this is a contested prediction, particularly given the extent to which the demand for EVs globally is outstripping the frustratingly sluggish rate of production.

Most New Zealanders spend less than $10,000 on their vehicles, remember, and the Government has made the chipper assertion that, since the new policy applies only to imports, the existing second-hand market for cars that lower-income families tend to purchase will not be affected.

That is far from supremely comforting. The Automobile Association predicts it is to be many years before there are large-scale volumes of EVs available for New Zealanders at affordable prices. The last thing we want is for the result to be that people will hang on to their older vehicles for even longer than they already do.

This strengthens the case for greater emphasis than we have yet seen on biofuel development.

This, however, must be seen as a related move, rather than as an alternative to the feebate scheme.

The last thing we want is for the result to be that people will hang on to their older vehicles for even longer than they already do.