National throws down gauntlet
There’s a good deal in National’s Back In Business plan for bringing the country out of lockdown that will ring a tuning fork for struggling businesses, but sound klaxons of alarm for epidemiologists.
National’s plan sets up the basis for a reasonably detailed compare-and-contrast exercise for tomorrow, when we learn the Government’s plans, and the milestones it will require.
There’s a range of support for businesses and workers in National’s scheme but also a ready-ornot component in a December 1 deadline, should it be that vaccination rates haven’t, by then, triggered the level deemed acceptable, 85 to 90 per cent.
National leader Judith Collins is certainly right to consider the target achievable, though the thought of
‘‘opening up’’ without it being achieved is not a pleasant one to contemplate.
But we must be careful about what constitutes ‘‘mission accomplished’’. Experts insist Auckland will need 90 to 95 per cent of all its eligible communities fully vaccinated before any significant easing of restrictions.
More concerning still is that National would allow areas with as low as 70 per cent vaccination, and no Covid community cases, to move to level 1. The Delta variant can spread so swiftly that its capacity to lay timebombs before the first case is discovered is scary indeed.
We can’t continue in our present state all that much longer. But the profound, if tediously repeated, truth remains that it’s the level of vaccination protection, coupled with adherence to the alert level rules, that will determine not the inevitability, but the speed and safety of our emergence.
As director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield says, the level of vaccination needed depends on the degree to which restrictions are being loosened at the same time.
National’s plan does offer swift support for businesses that are, let’s face it, in gasping need. Measures such as allowing businesses with a fully vaccinated workforce to return to full operations at alert level 2, paying the wage subsidy at that level, temporary tax cuts for small businesses and workers, and paying half the rental costs for small businesses with a 40 per cent reduction in revenue, would be popular.
The Government needs either to match the expectations raised by National, or explain why that would be a bad idea.
The $100 vouchers National proposes for every vaccinated adult to spend at a local eatery or tourism venue will have pretty clear appeal, with the likely exception of the many struggling businesses that might now wonder why they were excluded as potential recipients of this largesse.
Less convincing is National’s call for a two-year moratorium on any changes to regulations or legislation that add to the cost of business. It’s fair to promise vigilance and unyielding scrutiny of moves which may add to the burden on businesses when they can least afford it, but trying to lock this into some kind of moratorium raises the question of unexpected consequences down the track. It sounds more like posturing than a good idea.
Shadow Treasurer Andrew Bayly highlights that since the initial Covid outbreak, around 80,000 of us have been ‘‘pushed onto welfare’’ and that in the two months before the latest outbreak, more than 11,000 businesses ‘‘closed their doors for good’’.
Many more will go the same way without urgent action, he says. He’d be right.