Thousands tipped to head to Australia
ANZ economists predict about 20,000 New Zealanders a year will leave for Australia, adding to already ‘‘insatiable’’ demand in New Zealand’s labour market.
On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said from midnight tonight vaccinated New Zealanders will be able to travel from Australia to New Zealand without the need to self-isolate.
That will be followed by New Zealanders from the rest of the world from midnight Friday.
But the Government was still taking advice on when New Zealand should open up to all international visitors. Sir David Skegg, who chairs a group advising the Government, said getting through the Omicron peak was something that should be considered in that decision-making.
A report prepared by ANZ economists Finn Robinson and Miles Workman said the staggered nature of the current reopening plan meant there was ‘‘a significant risk’’ there would be a large net outflow of people this year, especially considering the
Australian labour market was forecast to heat up over the year.
‘‘Our closest neighbour Australia has opened up to fully vaccinated tourists, and seen a marked improvement in its labour market outlook – which could have significant implications for trans-tasman travel and immigration as restrictions ease in New Zealand.’’
That could put more pressure on New Zealand’s already stretched labour market, while adding to housing headwinds, they said.
They noted there was a lot of uncertainty about the exact timing and magnitude migration movements.
New Zealand had historically seen a net loss of people to Australia, with 2020 being the only of year in the past few decades where there was a positive inflow, they said.
‘‘There’s a real possibility that over 2022 we see a reversion to the historical pattern of a large net outflow of Kiwis to Australia.’’
It was difficult to know how many Kiwis living in Australia would come home once MIQ was no longer a hurdle, they said.
‘‘It’s uncertain which side things will settle during the initial stage of reopening. However, beyond the initial pent-up demand for travel, the economic fundamentals do seem to favour a net outflow of Kiwis to Australia.’’
‘‘There’s a real possibility that over 2022 we see a reversion to the historical pattern.’’ ANZ report