Nweke’s absence hinders Mystics
The Northern Mystics can’t drop out of the ANZ Premiership top three.
But they could end up losing home advantage for either finals match, which seemed improbable two weeks ago.
Grace Nweke has been sidelined with an ankle injury for their past three games and her absence has hit the defending champions hard. They’ve lost three on the bounce while getting muddled up on attack without their standout goal shoot.
The Central Pulse have moved within three points of the Mystics at the top of the table and have a game in hand, while the Stars are three points further back with two games in hand.
The Southern Steel are the fourth team still in the race for the top three but are a further six points back, needing to win their two remaining games against the Stars to have any chance.
Nweke’s ankle injury is believed to have been a minor one – grade one in medical parlance – and she could return in some capacity as soon as Saturday, when the Mystics host the Pulse at Trusts Arena in Auckland.
Before Nweke went down, the Mystics would have been hoping to advance straight to the grand final and play it at their Trusts Arena home, by virtue of finishing first. They now face the prospect of having to play an away elimination final, then an away grand final four days later, as they try to defend their title.
The second-placed team will host the elimination final, against the third-placed team, on June 8, with the grand final to follow on June 12.
If the Mystics rally to beat the Pulse in their final regular season match this weekend, they will finish no worse than second, but will need the Stars to stumble to stay at the top of the ladder and just have one match to worry about.
The Stars finish with three matches in five days from
Sunday, against the Steel, the lastplaced Waikato-bay of Plenty Magic, and the Steel again.
The Pulse finish with a trip to Christchurch to play the Tactix on Monday. They need two wins plus a Stars loss on Sunday to avoid having to wait to learn their final position.
If the Steel are to factor into the equation, they will likely need to beat the Magic on top of beating the Stars twice, while having the Magic beat the Stars as well.
Bonus points complicate things when it comes to pondering the permutations, while the goal percentage tiebreaker (goals scored divided by goals conceded) could yet have a say in determining the order of the top three.
The Pulse have the best mark as things stand at 110.8%, followed by the Mystics at 109.2%, the Stars at 104.5%, and the Steel at 98.2%. ■
■ Sunday, May 29; 2.10pm:
4.10pm:
■ Monday, May 30; 7.15pm:
■ Wednesday, June 1; 7.10pm: ■ Thursday, June 2; 7.10pm: ■ Saturday, June 4; 4.10pm: ■ Wednesday, June 8; 7.15pm: ■ Sunday, June 12, 4pm:
Points (games played): Mystics 31 (14), Pulse 28 (13), Stars 25 (12), Steel 19 (12), Tactix 19 (13), Magic 9 (12). in.
The Blues are guaranteed to finish first after Beauden Barrett’s last-gasp drop goal sunk the Brumbies for a dramatic 21-19 win in Canberra on Saturday.
The order of second to eighth will be decided this weekend, with the top four hosting a quarterfinal the following week.
The Blues, Crusaders and Brumbies will be playing their quarterfinals at home and the fight for fourth is between the Chiefs, Hurricanes and Waratahs.
The Reds start the round in seventh but can’t finish higher than fifth.
The Highlanders occupy the last quarterfinal spot but could be pipped to eighth by the Force, although that requires an unlikely swing of results.
If teams are level on competition points, the first deciding factor is the team with the most wins, then points difference, then most tries, then tries for and against. After that, it’s the improbable coin toss.
Finishing as high as possible is key for home advantage throughout the playoffs. In the semifinals, the two top-ranked teams will be hosts. In the final, the top-ranked team will play at home.
For example, if the table-topping Blues make the final, all of their playoff matches will be at Eden Park.
1st: Blues
Played 13, won 12, lost 1; 54 points, points difference +185
Waratahs (A) on Saturday, 9:45pm, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney points difference +108
Moana Pasifika (A) on Saturday, 7:05pm, Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
The Brumbies can finish as high as second but would need a favour from the Reds on Friday night and then beat Moana Pasifika with a bonus point.
They will be the top-ranked Australian team and host a quarterfinal, but they are likely to come third and would face whichever team finishes sixth.
That could be the Chiefs, Hurricanes, Waratahs or Reds, who will all be keen to avoid a tricky trip to Canberra. The Brumbies could also finish as low as fourth if they lose to Moana Pasifika and the Chiefs defeat the Fijian Drua.