Tight at the top, and the bottom
The Rugby Championship has never been closer – certainly not since Argentina were introduced in 2012.
After four rounds, each team has won two games and lost two games. That isn’t out of the ordinary for the Springboks and the Wallabies, but it is a significant change for the All Blacks and Los Pumas.
In the past decade, the All Blacks have lost only seven games in the Rugby Championship – two of them coming this year.
Argentina, meanwhile, have won only seven games since 2012 – with two of those victories in 2022.
The upshot is that with two games to go, all four teams can win the tournament or finish last, and it is inevitable that the winner won’t be decided until the final round of games.
That’s great for broadcasters, but less so for the blood pressure of the respective coaches.
In fact, it’s so close that the All Blacks – who sit top of the ladder by one competition point – could win both of the Bledisloe Cup tests and still not win the Rugby Championship if they do not collect at least one bonus point.
The only way the All Blacks can guarantee top spot is by winning both tests against the Wallabies with bonus points.
It also pays to take the current standings with a pinch of salt. Many have noted that the Wallabies are above the Springboks, despite sharing the same number of competition points and having an inferior for and against points differential.
That’s an anomaly, because competition rules state if teams are tied the winner is the one with ‘‘the most wins against the other team/s tied on the same points’’.
The Wallabies are tied with the Springboks and Pumas but have ‘‘more’’ wins (two) against them because South Africa and Argentina have both played twice against the All Blacks.
That quirk will become irrelevant when all teams have played each other.
So, how can the All Blacks not win a competition they have won seven times, compared to the one title each for the Springboks and Wallabies?
The upcoming Bledisloe Cup test in Melbourne on Thursday week (yes, Thursday) is critical.
If the All Blacks lose that test to the world’s No 8-ranked side, it would open the door for the Springboks or Pumas, who face off on Sunday week (7.10am, NZ time) in Argentina.
In the event of an All Blacks loss, the Springboks and Pumas would know exactly what they need to do to win the title.
For example, the Springboks would understand that if they beat the Pumas on the road, they would return to Durban the following week knowing that any type of home win would give them the championship.
The All Blacks’ job in Bledisloe I is therefore simple: win, preferably with a bonus point.
If they do that, they will be either five or six competition points ahead of both the Pumas and Springboks before they meet three days later in Buenos Aires.
That would put the pressure on both of those sides, particularly as the All Blacks’ final game is against the Wallabies at Eden Park, where their record speaks for itself.
But what happens if the All Blacks and say, the Springboks, finish the competition with the same number of wins and competition points?
In that instance, competition rules state that the overall points differential come into play – and the All Blacks (plus 39) currently hold an advantage over South Africa (plus 12).
However, if they have the same number of wins, competition points and points differential, the Springboks’ superior points differential in their two tests against the All Blacks would be the deciding factor.
The All Blacks are still favourites to retain the title they won last year, but it will pay to keep the calculator handy in the next few weeks.