Kyiv confronts tougher fight
Not far from the village of Kivsharivka on the east bank of the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces have hit a wall of Russian resistance as they try to extend a counteroffensive that just two months ago was sweeping across nearby lands at a stunning clip.
Andriy, a soldier with Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanised Brigade, was not sure what to say on a recent day, when a group of Ukrainian intelligence officers showed up and asked about his unit’s push toward Svatove, a small city in Luhansk region occupied since March.
‘‘How honest should I be?’’ Andriy said, declining to give his surname or rank because he was not authorised to speak to reporters.
A long pause followed.
‘‘It has been very hard,’’ he admitted.
After a string of autumn victories for Kyiv, the war in Ukraine is grinding down to another inflection point.
Over two and a half months, Ukrainian forces have impressed the world with their offensive mettle, first by recapturing the northeast Kharkiv region in a stunning rout and later in the south by methodically tightening the vise on a precarious slice of occupied land west of the Dnieper River – forcing Russia’s embarrassing retreat from Kherson city.
The victories have put Kyiv on the front foot, boosting morale and expectations of further success. Ukraine has every incentive to press on with its counteroffensive and retake as much occupied land as possible while Russia is still reeling from personnel shortages and command woes. The Pentagon has vowed to continue arming Kyiv alongside European allies for ‘‘as long as it takes’’. But the Ukrainian force now faces obstacles that threaten to slow the advance, with each side gearing up to continue the fight well into next year – and neither side close to what it envisions as victory.
Russian positions on the redrawn front in many cases are more dug in, forcing the Ukrainians to try to penetrate multiple lines of defence. Muddy conditions make manoeuvre warfare particularly difficult until the ground freezes in mid-winter. The Ukrainians, like the Russians, are contending with strained ammunition supplies and exhausted soldiers. Russia also managed to withdraw its best fighting units from Kherson, meaning they likely will appear as worthy foes elsewhere.
The tough fight ahead is apparent outside Svatove, where Andriy said his unit recently tried to take a Russian position in a village but found itself ambushed. Mixed in among newly mobilised Russian troops are special forces groups, Andriy said. Those elite soldiers not only have better experience but are also supported by reconnaissance drones that target Ukrainian troops attempting to advance.
Russia may be too weak to seize the offensive but Moscow has managed to bolster its defences to some degree, while also unleashing a relentless bombing campaign on critical Ukrainian infrastructure.
‘‘It turns out they have three lines of defence now,’’ Andriy said. ‘‘But they’re just sitting there in a deep defence. They’re not trying to move forward.’’
The situation has led to suggestions, most notably from US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Mark A Milley, that the time could be ripe for Ukraine to negotiate a political solution to the conflict with Russia – which almost certainly would require surrendering some territory.
In a news conference, Milley said front lines from Kharkiv down to Kherson are ‘‘beginning to stabilise’’ and suggested longer term it was unrealistic to think Ukraine could recapture the remaining 20% of its land held by Moscow – ‘‘unless,’’ he said, ‘‘the Russian army completely collapses, which is unlikely’’.
‘‘The Russian military is really hurting bad,’’ Milley told reporters at the Pentagon. ‘‘You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength and your opponent is at weakness. And it’s possible, maybe, that there will be a political solution. All I’m saying is there is a possibility for it – that’s all I’m saying.’’
Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the same time promised to continue helping Ukraine protect its population and achieve its aims on the battlefield, which Ukraine’s commander in chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny, has identified as retaking all Ukrainian territory held by Russia, including Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014.
Austin said he didn’t want to presuppose what was possible for the Ukrainian force, noting that it was up to Kyiv to decide on a good time to negotiate. Officials in Ukraine and elsewhere have warned against any peace talks that would give Moscow breathing room at this juncture.
Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said Ukraine did not trust that Russia would abide by any agreement to enter into negotiations and would use any pause in fighting to rebuild its stocks of ammunition and missiles, train its newly mobilised troops and refit and replace damaged equipment.
‘‘Russia needs a truce until spring and then they will strike with everything they have,’’ Ignat said. ‘‘Plus they will make new missiles, strike us with renewed vigour and destroy us completely.’’