Scottish independence

Theresa May is leading the UK out of Europe. She may have precipitated Scotland’s departure from the UK. These are not the circumstances in which the Scottish National Party anticipated embarking on a second independence campaign. There is not the sustained poll support for the idea nor the enthusiasm for a second referendum that only a year ago were taken as prerequisites.

Brexit has changed everything. Mrs May’s apparent readiness to tolerate leaving without a deal has played straight to the independence cause. Scotland’s needs have been brutally ignored, its special identity – of which the SNP is the unquestioned guardian – disregarded.

The choice facing voters in an independence referendum can be framed as one between the certain economic catastrophe of crashing out of the EU and the uncertain consequences of leaving the UK. No party that exists to secure Scottish independence could ignore such a favourable coincidence of circumstances.

Parliament has to approve the decision to hold a referendum. Westminster can dictate the timing. The Tories will argue that there cannot be a Scottish independence vote while the terms of Brexit are uncertain.

But there is little else in the tool kit. A vote before 2020 now looks almost certain.