England’s rise: The empire strikes back
John Barclay, the captain of Scotland, said after their shellacking at Twickenham: ‘‘England are arguably the best team in the world’’. Look, I think the missus would appreciate it if you cleaned up the beer that you have just snorted all over the living room floor. It’s just an opinion. Cyprus are also ‘‘arguably’’ the best team in the world.
Except that Barclay is not a mad monk from Nicosia. The All Blacks are currently over-rated because the rest of the southern hemisphere has never been so bad. And England are a coming force. It was not by fluke that they equalled New Zealand’s first-tier record of 18 consecutive victories.
Every indicator suggests that if England played the All Blacks right now it would be a match for the ages. The two teams have played six times in the last six years. Each team have suffered one heavy defeat at the end of a long season and tour. The All Blacks have won the other four matches (two at home and two away) by an average of four points.
That wasn’t Eddie Jones’ England that they were scraping past. That was the England of Stuart Lancaster. That was privileged England, the England that didn’t work hard enough, weren’t selected well enough and who were found wanting in the coaching department. So on those statistics alone, it is a fair bet that this vastly improved England side would give the All Blacks the sort of challenge that Australia and South Africa are not up to right now.
There are plenty of other reasons to predict a close contest. The two victory runs are both wonderful and both are not as good as they seem. The All Blacks only played three ‘away’ games in their run. Eight games were at home and seven were played on neutral territory at the World Cup.
The All Blacks won the World Cup during the run, a fantastic achievement, but they did not play England or Ireland during their unbeaten stretch, currently the two strongest northern hemisphere nations, nor did they beat a single Six Nations side on their home ground. And we know from the current tournament how hard that is to do at the moment.
So does the current New Zealand team’s run stack up against the unbeaten run of 23 games (including a draw) of the ‘87-’90 All Blacks? And what about the 2007 team that beat England by 21 points, South Africa by 27, Wales by 35, Scotland by 40 and France by 44, each on their home turf? Was that not a greater achievement?
But let’s not get carried away by England either. They have not played New Zealand during their run and 11 of their games have been at Twickenham. The luck of the schedule has played an equally huge part. And how symmetrical it would be if both runs were ended by Ireland, who might edge it in Dublin against England at the weekend provided both Conor Murray and Jonny Sexton stay upright.
The thing that will worry the All Blacks more than the confidence that England are getting through winning is that they are only likely to get better. England have won three of the past six Junior World Cups and have been runners-up twice.
The potential England team for the 2019 World Cup currently has an average age of 24. Jones is bringing through these kids fast. The Australians have always been far better than the patriarchal and conservative English at celebrating youth. England’s dowdiness has created glorious, rebellious youth movements, like the punk era, and a lot of badly selected and managed sports teams.
It is no coincidence that these kids are flourishing under a Kiwi captain and an Australian-Japanese coach. The English kids are getting some discipline, but if they work hard, they can also kick against the pricks. They look at Dylan Hartley and realise that Johnny Rotten can become the head of Public Image Limited.
They look at Jones and see a man who is prepared to back them. They see a man who says things like: ‘‘I think George [Ford] can be better than Beauden Barrett. People rave about Beauden Barrett but I don’t. I just think George has got a great feel for the game ... His alignment on some of the phase ball was absolutely outstanding, the best I have seen for a long time.’’
Who ever said that about an English first-five? Jonny Wilkinson didn’t get that sort of backing. Statistically possession and territory do not count for a huge amount in winning modern rugby matches – line breaks and turnovers are all. Those are the areas that the current All Blacks are selected to excel at and the areas where England, guided by effing Ford and Farrell, are also starting to excel.
It may be over a year away but England versus New Zealand is a game to drool over. The current All Blacks are partly built around the brilliance of the team that won the 2011 Junior World Cup (Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, TJ Perenara, Barrett) and beat Ford and Farrell’s England in the final (thanks to Gareth Anscombe’s superior goalkicking).
This England team is being built around a long run of success at junior level. Seven of the squad that beat Scotland played in the 2011 and 2013 junior finals and there are more coming through.
Steve Hansen did himself and the All Blacks proud with the congratulations he offered to England, noting the hard work they were putting in and the depth across key positions. And you can bet that this All Blacks management will be thrilled to at last have a challenge worthy of all New Zealand’s talents.
New Zealand versus England is going to be fast and furious, beautiful and ugly, skilful and brutal – it will be a great modern rivalry and the most wonderful thing of all is that the match is going to last for years.