As China flexes its muscles, what can little NZ do?
Foreign relations are often talked about as some sort of mysterious, multilayered art that average people should leave to skilled bureaucrats and academics.
We are generally pretty happy with that, although that doesn’t stop us having our favourite villains. Left-wingers tend to treat everything the United States does as an underhanded move to further the military-industrial complex and the profits of rich people. Few go on the streets to protest against Russia or China.
Right-wingers tend to overlook the bullying and often ruthless past of the US and fail to appreciate the complexities of Russia and China.
There are some countries that can take criticism and some that can’t. The US is too big and too powerful to care and most developed democratic countries take it on the chin.
China, despite its size, is particularly touchy, especially about subjects like Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Suggestions of treating Taiwan like any sort of independent state, for instance, are treated like an outrage.
In May, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said New Zealand backed an effort to have Taiwan join the World Health Organisation as an observer, especially since it handled Covid-19 so successfully.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian responded that China ‘‘deplores and opposes’’ New Zealand’s position, and ‘‘no-one should entertain any illusion when it comes to matters concerning China’s core interests’’.
Where does this put New Zealand when it wants to express disapproval or disgust at Chinese Government action?
There are plenty of issues relating to China, autocratically governed by the Chinese Communist Party headed by President Xi Jinping, on which the New Zealand Government could express an opinion. You can bet there will be plenty more in the future as China pursues its economic and security interests more aggressively.
The new national security laws in Hong Kong are designed to be repressive and bring the former British colony into line with the rest of China. The longstanding domination of Tibet is a continuing issue, and the re-education camps into which China has funnelled about a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang are obvious subjects requiring a response.
A select committee recently published a controversial submission by China expert AnneMarie
Brady, a professor at Canterbury University, that alleges China is seeking to influence politics and media in New Zealand through front organisations.
There appear to be some reasons for keeping quiet or muting our response.
You could argue that public expressions of disapproval are a waste of time because little New Zealand has no influence at all on a big power like China. All public utterances achieve is risk of retaliation against exporters and loss of business and therefore jobs. Much better, it might be said, to work quietly through less open channels.
The trouble with that approach is that the public is none the wiser about what is actually said. It also gives little comfort to the victims of repression and conveys the impression to the world that we have been bullied into keeping quiet.
History is full of obnoxious governments whose power was cemented by other countries thinking some quiet diplomacy and pressure would bring them into line.
China says ‘‘keep out of our affairs’’, which is a bit rich when it meddles in others’ affairs.
So what do we do? Do we all shut up in case we jeopardise our trade relationship with one of our biggest customers?
China takes about $20 billion of our meat, dairy and wood products and is one of our three biggest trading partners. Before Covid-19, China was our largest source of foreign students and its tourists came in just behind Australia in visitor numbers.
The risk of retaliatory action is high. When Australia had the temerity to support an international probe into Covid-19, China reacted quickly by imposing heavy anti-dumping tariffs on Australian barley, along with an import ban on beef from four of the country’s major abattoirs. In June, it appears to have engineered a cyber-attack on our neighbour.
So you can’t blame a government for avoiding putting livelihoods at risk by some possibly pointless defence of Hong Kong freedoms and Tibet’s right to independence. Even economic powerhouses like Germany are circumspect about criticising China.
The best approach to China seems to be to work behind the scenes but also to express concern publicly on occasion. At the same time repercussions can be limited by repairing and strengthening Western alliances that can act defensively to curb China’s economic and security threat.
We are not going to change China and the way it sees its future. But we can join with the likeminded to ensure China has to meet certain requirements to get its way and does not dominate international institutions like the United Nations.
So far that approach is faltering. For instance, New Zealand chose not to join a statement condemning the national security laws in Hong Kong by its Five Eyes allies – United States, Canada, Britain and Australia – in May.
Then after the laws came into force, the Five Eyes nations failed to take a unified approach. It seems the arcane arts of diplomacy and soft pressure are not working.
As for the average punter, what can we do? Not much but we could start by taking an interest. We cannot expect our Government to speak out if the public it represents appears not to care.
Repercussions can be limited by repairing and strengthening Western alliances that can act defensively to curb China’s economic and security threat.