What Collins means for NZ First and ACT
Politics is in a state of flux. The ascension of Judith Collins to National’s top job – and the particular figure that she is – now throws the fate of the smaller parties into the unknown.
Quite aside from a head-to-head with Labour, Collins’ elevation poses particular questions for the parties to National’s left and right: NZ First and ACT. Her new position is basically irrelevant to the Greens, which will mostly be fighting with Labour for its voters.
There is a good chance there will be only four parties in Parliament after the election. NZ First is now firmly polling around 3 per cent or lower in public polls and between 1 per cent and 5 per cent in private ones.
The party points out, correctly, that it always polls poorly between election cycles, but the particular politics of Covid mean it is left with a series of unenviable choices. The only big game in town is Covid recovery and it is difficult to see how NZ First can effectively deal itself back into relevance in that conversation.
Much depends on Labour. If it wins above 50 per cent of the vote on election night – unlikely but certainly possible on current polls – it could well crowd out either NZ First or the Greens, pushing them below 5 per cent. Traditionally, the Greens have done very well on overseas votes.
It is hard to see a prime minister who is lauded overseas for her handling of March 15 terror attacks, Whakaari/White Island and Covid not gobbling up a greater share of those for Labour.
NZ First, meanwhile, is trying to create clear air between it and Labour on other issues such as defence and national security, in which its ministers have done a good job, and on the Tiwai Point smelter, where it says it will back a management/worker buyout.
And despite being an impressive publicity machine, Shane Jones is highly unlikely to even come close to securing the seat of Northland from the incumbent, National’s Matt King, a Judith Collins backer. NZ First would need to win 5 per cent.
We are just about to enter the final three sitting weeks of Parliament. Should nothing go awry for the Government, the end of it will mark Winston Peters’ first completed term as a minister in a government.
Given that National is still technically ruling out going into coalition with NZ First – which may change under the new leadership – NZ First’s main pitch to voters is acting as a handbrake on the Government.
But in the last Colmar Brunton poll Labour and the Greens received a joint 56 per cent of the vote.
As John Key did before her, Jacinda Ardern may wish to give herself options post-election if she wins, and still have a LabourGreens-NZ First-type coalition.
But if Labour can govern separately with either party, NZ
First won’t be a handbrake on anything. It needs the polls to tighten up or to find a strong issue.
For ACT, the calculation is different. David Seymour has been going up and down the country since the last election speaking to groups, holding meetings and giving the party a broader, more youthful and modern feel.
It has also been unafraid to woo neglected groups such as libertarians, gun owners and free speech advocates, after the Government passed tighter gun laws, and attempted to pass hate speech legislation in the wake of the terror attack last year.
ACT had more than 600 people at its launch in Auckland last week, and 200 at a meeting in Christchurch on Thursday. The party says donations and membership are coming in steadily and the general view is that its structure is in its best shape for 17 years.
It also reckons its positioning around Covid-19 – supportive of the intent of Government policy but consistently railing against over-reach and big Government solutions – is bearing fruit.
Seymour also likes to point out he has a young leader/deputy team with an average age of 32, compared to National’s average age of 62.
ACT will continue with its plans, understanding that Collins’ leadership could mean two things.
ACT’s view is that it’s mostly upside either way. Either Collins will shift National to the right, making it less electable, or she will take National into the political centre to try to win voters back from Labour (and have a hope at actually winning the election).
Either way ACT sees itself as a potential recipient – either of disaffected right-leaning voters if she tacks centre or of normally National voters who only like the party when it is winning.
ACT could be right about that, but if Collins galvanises the National Party base and also manages to attract some voters back from Labour it could be tough on the smaller party.
Collins has a natural sort of constituency with free speech antiwoke warrior types. The question is whether those voters vote for National already or have mostly found a home in NZ First, ACT, or another minor party that won’t make it into Parliament.
So far Collins is untested as leader, but if her first big speech yesterday, outlining massive transport spending for the upper North Island, was anything to go by, at least part of National’s pitch will be to make life practically better for Kiwis.
While there are always arguments over the cost estimates and which pots of money will pay for what, one line in her speech was telling.
Collins explained that while National will use cost-benefit analysis to guide decisions, it wants to build big new roads, rails and transit corridors years before they are needed and not be held hostage by economists.
This had a real nation-building vibe that implicitly homes in on a weakness of the Government: it has proven inept at building stuff, KiwiBuild and light rail in Auckland being the two key examples.
For Labour this changes little. It is best described as wary but not worried. It is understood its polling shows that Collins is viewed negatively by more New Zealanders than positively. This was the case with Simon Bridges too.
But that is by the by at the moment. Collins has yet to really carve out her turf as leader and create an identity not as Judith Collins, but as leader of the National Party.