Our brilliant winter

Warmer air off east coast expected to bring pleasant winter days while soil moisture and river flows may be below average

Winter is not expected to bring the usual severely chilly conditions this year because warmer temperatures are predicted to last right through to early spring.

The National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research’s climate outlook report for June, July and August shows sea-level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the northeast of the country and lower than normal pressures are predicted over the whole country for the three months.

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average off the west coast and above average to the east — which will mean warmer-thanusual conditions, overall.

Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said the warmer weather had been a trend for several months now.

Although that was set to continue over the next few months, there would still be the odd cold night.

“This is the 17th straight month we’ve been getting warm temperatures. We’re going to get a lot of air coming from the east — as opposed to winds from the south, which will be colder.

“If our air’s coming from the east, it’s coming from a place where cold temperatures don’t live. The air from the east is a bit warmer,” Mr Brandolino said.

“But we do expect cold snaps. There will be periods of [very] cold temperatures . . . that will actually feel like winter.” The report outlines the kinds of temperature, rainfall and soil moisture people can expect in various parts of the country.

Overall, there is a stronger (45 to 50 per cent) chance of temperatures being above average in the North Island. There is an equal chance for temperatures to be above average or near average over the South Island.

In terms of rainfall total predictions, the report says there is a 40 per cent chance for that to be near normal or above normal for the east of the North Island and the

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