Time to lead NZ beyond ‘the cusp’
Economic strategy that has kept country impressively buoyant through GFC now needs to shift up a gear
It’s the economy. Again. There was a lot to cut through in this campaign but voters have stayed with a party that has delivered one of the most benign economic environments in the Western World over the past six years.
If New Zealand is “on the cusp” of something exciting, as John Key has promised, then it is on the economy which we should now be expecting him to deliver.
National’s front row of Key, Bill English and Steven Joyce has been world class in managing the country through the biggest global downturn in a generation. Few, if any, of the opposition parties were prepared to give them credit for that. Voters clearly have.
But now it is time to shift economic strategy from the defensive to the offensive.
As this economic cycle matures we should expect to see productivity grow, unemployment fall and wages rise. These are the measurable statistics on which this third-term Government must be held to account.
Employment and wages, traditionally the most sluggish indicators in an economic cycle, are now the most important if we are serious about a New Zealand that is wealthier, more equal and can afford to look after its environment properly.
We literally can’t afford to return to preGFC days of consumer borrowing and spending to fund the kind of comfortable existence we are conditioned to expect. We have to create wealth not just shuffle it around.
The stock market will no doubt rally in the coming days. There will be renewed confidence in the listed state-owned energy stocks. The dollar will spike — before falling back on the mercy of the US Federal Reserve.
We should see renewed domestic business confidence in the short term. But what about the long term? We know the economy is scheduled to feel the fallout from a slump in global dairy prices next year as Fonterra’s payout drops. We don’t yet know how serious that will be.
There is agreement across the political spectrum about the need to shift away from a reliance on commodities.
It is time for New Zealand to kick it up a gear.
Critics have asked where is the vision? English is not shy of stating his belief that if you provide the right conditions and get Government out of the way then business will lead the charge.
We have some great corporates and incredible entrepreneurial spirit in this country. The best of these businesses are using the fair economic winds to make the changes they need to sustain growth
It is time for New Zealand to kick it up a gear.
for the next decade. So too should the Government.
If we coast from here then all too soon we will find our growth path blocked by one or other of our regular stumbling blocks — a drought based recession or the next round of global financial turmoil.
And then we will have failed to cash in on the strong platform that English has set. These next three years need to be a time of real wealth creation, based on productivity and export-led growth.
The housing market can’t be allowed to soar further away into bubble territory.
Having said no to a capital gains tax, National must make good on promises to fix the supply side of the equation.
It should take another look at Christchurch. If the National Party is now stronger in Christchurch then it should be confident enough to listen to the public and adapt its grand plans without fear that this represents political weakness.
Business wants to see renewed focus on research and development. National must continue to drive the commercialisation of the country’s great innovation and science.
Only by embracing technology will we shift our economy up the value chain. So, let’s not be shy. We are a small nation. We should aim to lead the world in that space — at least per capita.
The Government does need to pick some winners and back some fledgling industries, without getting in the way of business or creating new layers of bureaucracy.
Joyce has the skills to lead that kind of economic charge.
But the opportunity is now. We need to see some dynamism and new energy in the third term.
Expect to see National get serious about its education policy. Both Key and Joyce are convinced the sector needs to change. From primary through to tertiary it will be one of the big ideological battlegrounds in the next three years.
But let’s hope there is also room and appetite for some consensus politics out there.
This has been a weird and polarising election campaign.
There was clearly a circus-like element to the scandals of the past two months which turned voters off. But there were serious issues raised — around public surveillance and the Government’s use of ugly and negative spin — that the Prime Minister needs to address. He will benefit from a less divided nation and have a clearer path to tackle policy if he does show transparency and follow through with inquiries.
From Key we need to see innovation, pragmatism and, most of all, enthusiasm to take New Zealand beyond “the cusp” — whatever that might be.