Address before war
Trump and GOP leaders makes a solution to the party's disadvantage seem remote
Anne O'Reilly, a lifelong Republican activist, was in the audience at Gettysburg waiting for Donald Trump to arrive. She remains hopeful that Trump can win the presidency but has no doubt what will happen if he doesn't.
“I think it's going to be an eggbeater in the Republican Party. I think you're going to see pieces going all over the place.”
Trump came to Gettysburg in Pennsylvania to deliver what his campaign billed as a closing argument for the presidential campaign, to lay out plans for the first 100 days of a Trump administration and, citing Abraham Lincoln's famous address here in 1863, to restore a government of, by and for the people.
The speech was a laundry list of familiar promises on the economy, national security, immigration and other issues, though the candidate's message was muddled by his assertions of coming lawsuits against the women accusing him of sexual misconduct and his pledges to break up media companies that he said are trying to deny him the presidency.
It was ironic that Trump chose Gettysburg, the site of one of the most decisive battles of the US Civil War, for his speech. Win or lose, Republicans are probably headed toward a civil war of their own, a period of conflict and turmoil and a reckoning of potentially historic significance. That debate has already begun, as the tension between Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan has shown throughout the year. It will only intensify after November 9.
Unless Trump reverses his fortunes over the next two weeks, the Republicans face defeat in the presidential race, with the possible loss of control of the Senate and the prospect of a smaller majority in the House. Trump's future is in his hands. Saving the Senate and protecting the House are the priority of GOP leaders.
The Republican presidential nomi- nee has not only failed to unify the GOP; his candidacy has intensified longstanding hostility towards the party establishment among the grassroots forces backing him. That tension has made it harder to find a solution to a major problem: The Republican coalition now represents growing shares of the declining parts of the electorate — the inverse of what an aspiring majority party should want.
The Pew Research Centre recently charted the changing fortunes of the two major parties with an examination of party identification over the past quarter-century.
The United States is becoming more diverse racially and ethnically, better educated overall and with a population that is ageing. Pew's analysis found the following: “The Democratic Party is becoming less white, less religious and bettereducated at a faster rate than the country as a whole, while ageing at a slower rate. Within the GOP, the pattern is the reverse.”
By putting together the demographic shifts with changes in party allegiance, the Pew study underscored two big changes. Both bode poorly for the Republicans if they cannot adjust their appeal rapidly.
In 1992, non-Hispanic whites made up 84 per cent of registered voters. Today, they represent just 70 per cent of registered voters. The percentage of Hispanics has nearly doubled to 9 per cent. Mixed race or others have risen from 1 per cent to 5 per cent, and blacks have ticked up from 10 per cent to 12 per cent.
Both parties have become less white in their makeup, but the changes have moved at significantly different rates. In 1992, whites accounted for 76 per cent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Today, whites make up only 57 per cent. Whites comprised 93 per cent of Republicans a quartercentury ago. Today, they're still 86 per cent. In other words, there's been a 19-point shift inside the Democratic Party, and only a 7-point shift in the GOP coalition.
Over the past quarter of a century, the median age of registered voters, according to the Pew report, has risen from 46 to 50. What's happened to the parties? In 1992, the Republican Party had a slightly younger cohort than the Democrats. Today, the GOP is significantly older in its make up than the Democrats — and older by two years than the median age.
When Bill Clinton was elected president, Republican voters were in general much better educated than Democratic voters. Today's Democratic Party followers have somewhat higher education levels than Republicans.
Trump's candidacy has drawn its strongest support from white voters who lack college degrees. In 1992, whites without college degrees accounted for 63 per cent of all registered voters. Today, white, noncollege-educated voters account for just 45 per cent in 2016 Pew surveys. Whites with college degrees have increased from a fifth of the electorate to a quarter today.
These are root problems for the Republicans, things that remain as long-term challenges no matter the outcome of this election. But Trump's candidacy complicates finding a solution.
Trump's loyalists want a future Republican Party in which the Paul Ryans and others in the current establishment play a reduced role. Those in the party who have openly opposed or resisted Trump want just the opposite.