Rod Emmerson
Some ambitious members disturbed by prospect of English as PM without contest
The cohesive National Party caucus that John Key has led for 10 years is about to start fraying as members grapple with how to replace him as Prime Minister.
Key’s endorsement of Finance Minister Bill English has not been met with universal approval by MPs still reeling from the news that their No 1 asset is leaving politics.
The caucus will meet at Parliament today to discuss the selection process.
Key’s dream-team for the succession is known to be English as Prime Minister, Paula Bennett as Deputy Prime Minister and Steven Joyce as Finance Minister.
That is the likely outcome because Key’s influence remains huge.
But sources spoken to by the Herald suggest a pocket of discontent with some not wanting the baton passed without a contest next Monday, even with the knowledge English will be the likely successor.
There is speculation that Health Minister Jonathan Coleman and Justice Minister Amy Adams are considering a run, possibly on a new generation ticket.
Judith Collins, too, is not ruling out a bid and Paula Bennett has made no decisions.
Asked if she was standing, Bennett said she was “still in a stage of denial and shock and will turn my mind to that in the next 24 hours”.
You learn more from losing than you do from winning and in the last 10 years I’ve had a masterclass every day from John Key about how to do politics. Bill English
Coleman would not comment and Adams did not return calls yesterday.
Any challenge, however, might not be made with the expectation of winning but as a rehearsal for a possible new leadership contest in a year’s time if National does not win a fourth term. Any bid by Judith Collins could be seen as positioning for a possible run next year or as a potential deputy to English.
Key’s preference will be for an uncontested transition, to reinforce unity and stability of government.
English himself said National needed only a week and did not have the process of a prolonged “brawl” by which Labour now elected its leader.
The caucus will determine the process tomorrow for a vote at a special caucus next Monday.
What is not clear is how the deputy will be chosen although, by convention, that person needs to be the choice of the leader.
English is reserving his public declaration until he knows he can win. Losing would not only be humiliating, it could force his resignation as Finance Minister.
In a press conference yesterday, he repeatedly stressed the “cohesion” of the National caucus.
“He [Key] leaves behind a cohesive team with plenty of talent and energy to take New Zealand forward,” he said.
English was first elected to Parliament in 1990. After a disastrous stint as National leader in Opposition, in which the party polled just 20.93 per cent of the vote, he redeemed himself in his role as Finance Minister.
He has also led Government reform in the way it determines social spending, under the aegis of the “social investment approach”.
English said he had learned a lot from his loss and from Key’s leadership.
“You learn more from losing than you do from winning and in the last 10 years I’ve had a masterclass every day from John Key about how to do politics.”
Key’s endorsement of English in- directly acknowledged his failure as a party leader previously.
“Bill has, I believe, grown a great deal since he was last party leader,” he said.
Fifteen years on he has more experience and the party and political cycles are quite different.
“I believe that National, under Bill’s leadership, would win the election in 2017.”