The main players

Bill English

Will seek leadership with the blessing of John Key but with the curse of his former leadership not completely vanquished. Has redeemed his reputation as a highly competent Finance Minister and is the most trusted alternative.

First elected 1990. Wellington-based list MP.

Paula Bennett

National’s most senior woman, and has been groomed by Key and English for higher things. Probably English’s deputy but would probably run herself in the unlikely event of English not running.

First elected 2005. Upper Harbour MP.

Steven Joyce

No interest in becoming Prime Minister but the obvious choice for Finance Minister under English.

First elected 2008. Auckland-based list MP.

Jonathan Coleman

Highly combative North Shorebased Health Minister has leadership ambitions. Could team up with Amy Adams from Canterbury for a run, but may just be a rehearsal for next time.

First elected 2005. North Shore MP.

Amy Adams

Competent and dynamic minister who could team up with Jonathan Coleman as part of a new generation ticket that ticks all the boxes for balance but would be a huge gamble.

First elected 2008. Selwyn MP.

Judith Collins

Has largely behaved herself since her reinstatement to Cabinet a year ago but has never quite lost her maverick streak. No chance of becoming leader but could make a run to improve chances of better portfolios or getting deputy post.

First elected 2002. Papakura MP.