What the polls say

didate running a close race for the French presidency.

Led by Jeremy Corbyn, Labour could lose 50 to 100 seats as the election campaign over the next seven weeks lays bare all its divisions, according to Steven Fielding, professor of politics at Nottingham University. It lost 52 seats in 1983, when one Labour MP, Gerald Kaufman, famously called the party’s election manifesto “the longest suicide note in history”.

“This is a high-stakes election, and what will Labour look like?” Fielding said. “Labour will look like a rabble, and that will be an image that will be imprinted on many voters for a number of elections to come. That will take a political generation to overcome.”

It’s that weakness that fuelled May’s confidence in calling a snap election for June 8 as she seeks a personal mandate to push through her strategy for withdrawal from the EU. She wants to take Britain out of the single market and customs union and is counting on an increased majority in Parliament to give her greater flexibility in brokering a deal with her EU counterparts. It would mean she’d no longer be a potential hostage to MPs at both extremes of her own party who are seeking to soften or harden her strategy.

The leadership of Corbyn, 67, has been as unassailable among Labour members as it has been unpopular among voters and his own MPs.

The problem for Labour is that while it has some policies that are “attractive” to the public, voters tend to vote on “broad perceptions of competence” and Corbyn isn’t able to get his message across, according to Wells. At the same time, he’s alienated a chunk of his parliamentary group with poor organisation and radical left views.

After Labour moderates mounted a failed coup against Corbyn last year, criticism from within his own party escalated in February when the Conservatives took a district in northwest England always held previously by Labour.

If Fielding is right, Labour’s presence could fall to as low as 130 MPs in the 650-seat House of Commons. The party has 229 and is defending one seat in a special election on May 5 that now looks redundant. In the 1983 vote, it emerged with 209 seats.

“It took Labour until 1997 to recover from 1983,” said Fielding. “I can’t see any reason why it won’t happen again.” YouGov Con 48% (-) Lab 25% (+1) LibDem 12% (-) Ukip 5% (-2) ComRes Con 50% (+4) Lab 25% (-) LibDem 11% (-) Ukip 7% (-2) Opinium Con 45% (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LibDem 11 (+4) Ukip 9 (-5)