Coalitions would leave cupboard bare for Maori
In a few hours the nation’s social media feeds will return to primarily baby and holiday photos and inspirational quotes. Out for the next three years will be the unsolicited political pitches and urgings from those friends and associates at the harder edge of the political spectrum.
It will be safe to again consider reading the comments section of media and Facebook, without feeling assaulted by the severe partisan political views that now dominate these sites. A bias that sadly is no longer uncommon among those who also report on politics.
Whether the impact of social media will make a difference with the youth vote at this election will soon be evident. It was a strategy engaged by Kim Dotcom and the Internet Party at the last election, seeking to lure youth with concerts and slick social media campaigns. Dotcom and his party are still waiting for those youth to arrive at the polling booth.
It is no coincidence individuals become more engaged in the election with time. By and large we are more invested in our communities and society, and have whanau to think about, the older we get. In time, we also note there is little between the major parties and increasing funding in one area means a reduction elsewhere, or increased taxes for someone else.
Time also teaches most of us that irrespective of the outcome on election day, and no matter what political mix forms the next government, they too will eventually be confronted with demands for a “time for change”.
Until then every government engages what is the real engine room of all political parties — retaining power, and survival. To do this politicians must try to please as many voters as often as they can — especially in the last year of the three-year election cycle. Therein lies the dilemma for Maori, who are a minority. Targeting Maori is likely seen as fostering “privilege”.
Maori account for 15 per cent of the population, but are over-represented across almost every negative social statistic. With a relatively young population, Maori are also set to become a significant and growing percentage of this country’s working-age population. Failure to address the failings for Maori across especially health and education will impact on New Zealand’s productivity and our competitiveness in the world.
Surprisingly, a National government whose political fortunes turned under former leader Don Brash, railing against “Maori privilege”, increased funding for Maori development and added significant momentum to Treaty settlements. National did this by way of a trade-off for a confidence and supply arrangement with the Maori Party when forming the government.
How Maori fare in the share of resourcing post-election will be determined by the numbers on election night. The more support parties Labour or National need, the less resourcing and support will be left for Maori.
Kelvin Davis is unlikely to remain deputy in a Labour-NZ First coalition. Such a coalition supported by a confidence and supply agreement with the Greens will leave a fairly bare cupboard for Maori funding.
The situation is similar if National coalesces with NZ First, and has the added potential barb of a binding referendum on the Maori seats which NZ First has demanded. (Labour would never agree to this as the party justifiably considers most if not all the Maori seats its own.)
It is therefore likely the two or three seats the Maori Party will secure at this election will not be called on to help form the next government. And this is not a bad thing for the party. The Maori Party would benefit from time in opposition, as has the Labour Maori caucus. The party is a natural opposition party. It is far easier to sit on the sidelines and throw political stones at government about its failings for Maori — because there are so many.
As the Maori Party now will better comprehend, it is much harder to find the solutions, and even harder to secure adequate funding and the right policy to make a difference.
For the Maori party, the coming three years is an opportunity to consolidate in opposition. To re-grow its membership, to strengthen its political structures and funding mechanisms and to grow its independence so it is no longer a target for takeover by another Maori entity intent on growing its political power and influence.
The party has shown that Maori benefit from having a strong independent political voice and influence, but only if it is genuinely independent and informed by a good cross section of Maori society. It has also learned that like Icarus, supporting a government is like getting too close to the sun — stay there too long and it will be fatal.