What Winston will do

I have been struggling with all the permutations that could emerge from last week’s talks but this morning woke with a clear picture of what Winston will do. He will go with National on the argument that the voters gave them the biggest vote. He will not go into government but pull the strings from the sidelines for the next three years. He will not take deputy PM as that would require him to push the government line, but will get some “plum” Cabinet positions for his top colleagues sitting outside Cabinet.

What will horrify everyone is just how many policy changes he will affect even though National will try to explain them as “not direction-changing”.

So he will get an inquiry on the ports and maybe even a referendum on the Maori seats. He will get concessions on immigration but it will be worded to allow us to bring in workers required for the house building etc. He will get concessions for his Super voters and will be able to claim “wins” on nearly 75 per cent of his policies even though some will be ambiguously worded to allow both sides to save face.

My reason for this conclusion is that if you take Paula Bennett at face value all the discussions have been on policy, not perks.

His refusal to talk to the Greens means the possibility of a Labour/Green/NZ First coalition has become remote as no one is prepared to wait for the Greens to ratify going into a government they have had no part in forming and will get virtually nothing out of.

The last and most compelling reason for not going into government is that once the decision is made he will be forced into a role of supporting “his” Government. You saw the smile on his face this week showing how much he is enjoying the spotlight. If he stays in control from the sidelines he will have that smile for the next three years.

Geoff Minchin, Kawakawa.