Military leaves door
‘Road map’ believed to allow for rival to replace President
Zimbabwe’s defence forces appeared to open the door yesterday to the possibility that 93-year-old President Robert Mugabe could stay in power, after both sides offered “several guarantees” nearly a week after the military detained him, according to a top army commander.
Although Mugabe’s fate remained murky, the prospect that he might have survived a military takeover, historic opposition protests and removal from his own political party suggested once again his uncanny ability to hang on to power.
In a statement yesterday, General Constantino Chiwenga, chief of Zimbabwe’s armed forces, said the military had held “further consultations with the President to agree on a road map” for the country. The plan includes the “expected” return of former Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa, whom Mugabe had fired earlier this month. The statement referred to Mugabe as the commander in chief and said the military was “encouraged by new developments”.
It was Mnangagwa’s dismissal that prompted the military intervention last Wednesday, which ushered in a tumultuous and often buoyant week in Harare, with thousands taking to the streets, rejoicing in what appeared to be the end of Mugabe’s rule. But on Monday, in what many expected to be a publicly televised resignation, the world’s oldest head of state instead delivered a meandering speech, making it clear that he had no intention of leaving the presidency.
Analysts said military commanders may have worked out a deal that would lead to Mugabe’s resignation after an interim period and his replacement by Mnangagwa, possibly during next month’s congress of the ruling Zanu-PF party. For now, the military’s vague statement about a “road map” left plenty of room for conjecture.
What is clear is that as long as Robert Mugabe stunned Zimbabweans when he failed to announce his resignation during a televised address on Monday.
For years we’ve been victims of the lawlessness of the ruling party. If we abandon the law to get Mugabe out, we are not safeguarding ourselves from more lawlessness in the future. Lovemore Madhuku
Mugabe remains in power at the military’s behest, millions in Zimbabwe will be devastated. For years, as Mugabe’s rule grew more erratic and repressive — and as the economy continued to collapse — Zimbabweans spoke openly about when and how the “old man” would go. This week brought that outcome closer than ever.
Mnangagwa’s return would appease a small but powerful segment of the ruling party. He has been a core member of Zanu-PF for decades, with strong connections to the security forces. But many Zimbabweans see him as corrupt and oppressive for having helped insulate Mugabe’s regime for years before their abrupt falling-out.
Chiwenga’s statement said Mnangagwa was “expected in the country shortly”. He fled to South Africa after being fired, most likely to avoid the possibility of arrest.
Mugabe could still be forced out through constitutional channels. Lawmakers were today expected to begin proceedings to impeach him, although it remained unclear how the military’s statement would affect those plans. Some members of Parliament who support Mnangagwa could now back away from impeachment.
Impeachment could take days or months, depending on which constitutional lawyer is consulted. It could be a unanimous vote, or a deeply divided one, depending on how opposition parties decide to act.
While some have looked to other African coups — such as those in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Nigeria — for insights into how things might play out in Zimbabwe, this has become a wholly different transition of power. Both Mugabe’s military and civilian opponents are tiptoeing around the country’s laws, eager to imbue any successor with an air of legitimacy that would be accepted by the international community. In its bylaws, the regional bloc of southern African nations includes strong language against coups.
If the military has indeed agreed to allow Mugabe to remain in power in exchange for its own demands, it has done so as much by diplomacy as force. In his speech on Monday, Mugabe told the nation that the military operation that led to his detention “did not amount to a threat to our well-cherished constitutional order”.
For years, Mugabe took the law into his own hands, encouraging his Government to seize land belonging to white farmers by force and ordering the detention of his political opponents. Earlier this month, a 25-year-old American woman, Martha O’Donovan, was arrested for subversion after she allegedly insulted Mugabe on Twitter. Two weeks ago, four people were detained for booing his wife at a rally.
But when Mugabe’s own Government finally turned against him, it declined to use the same brute force or extrajudicial power he has employed for years. Aside from wanting to avoid allegations of coupplotting, Zimbabwe’s military may have been showing deference to the only president Zimbabwe has ever