Favourites win the Karaka Million — sometimes
Professional punters will tell you 2-year-old races are almost always the safest betting propositions.
Times change. The Karaka Million certainly doesn’t support that theory, but this race as a one-off is different.
In times past juveniles in a race had mostly previously faced their rivals, probably multiple times. Form references were there for all to see.
Karaka Million runners predominantly come from different formlines, some from Australia. We have only to go back 364 days to remember the shock Melody Belle gave us when she and Opie Bosson won at $32.40 and $6.60.
A year previous Xiong Feng got the dollars at $11.90 and $2.80. Placed behind him were Show me ya money honey at $7.60 a place and Kings man at $5.60. Go back another year and Queensland’s Liam Birchley scored his second win with Hardline, the early Million favourite who drifted to pay $7.80 off the back of a shocking barrier draw.
Yes, favourites win the Million — Vespa paid $4.10 in 2014 and Ruud Awakening $1.90 in 2013. Melbourne’s Ockham’s Razor went around under Craig Williams to pay $6.40 in 2012 and Fort Lincoln scored the biggest upset for Lisa Latta paying $42.30 and $12.60 in 2011. Liam Birchley’s first winner, Sister Havana, and the late Stathi Katsidis, got home at $6.70 in 2010. That’s an average win dividend of $14.18.
So, will that stat steer punters away from the two Karaka Million favourites Avantage ($3.60) and She’s A Thief ($3.80)? No.
Punters follow winning form and Avantage is unbeaten in three appearances and She’s A Thief is two from three. Additionally they have favourable barriers, No 5 and No 3.
There is one area of possible concern — the start. But co-trainer Stephen Autridge says fear not. Avantage dwelt by one length, but soon led on debut at Riccarton then got away cleanly with the addition of a barrier blanket at her second race at Riccarton. But at Ellerslie last start she missed away by a clear two lengths and recovered brilliantly to win.
Autridge says that was by design. “She led in her first two starts and learned nothing. The idea at Ellerslie was to drop her back and make her go through them and learn.”
She ran out a significant distance in the closing stages in winning last time, but that could be put down to having her first look at Ellerslie.
Avantage has a beautiful pedigree with Zabeel, Pins, Centaine and Zamazaan the immediate four dam sires. Her granddam Pins’n’needles finished second to Sir Slick in the Thorndon Mile.
She’s a Thief will go forward for Jake Bayliss. Co-trainer Pam Gerard says she’s not concerned if the grey filly does not lead, but She’s A Thief has looked dominant in front. She led and won her first two starts and last time when run down, the race was set up for swoopers and the winner, Melt, is exceptionally good.
It’s a great record for Te Akau to have five Million acceptors, but even more notable to have three of the four favourites — Avantage, Sword Of Osman $6.50 and Al Hasa at $10.
Sword Of Osman did not barrier trial before his Manawatu debut victory, in which he looked a coming star. “That’s how happy with him we’d been,” said Autridge. “He’s probably the forgotten horse.”
Nirvana In Fire has to come out of gate No 11. Major races can be won from wide gates over 1200m at Ellerslie. He has plenty of early speed and should come across and race handy.