Trump’s arrival divisive in Davos
Cold shoulder from politicians but warm reception from business
The business and political spheres frequently disagree, but rarely has this divide been more apparent than at Davos this week. The immediate cause is Donald Trump; assuming he doesn’t cancel, the American president will be flying in tomorrow for a full frontal assault on the consensually driven, status quo so liberally represented here. Much of his message will be the very antithesis of what the World Economic Forum stands for.
For many of the politicians, NGOs, and academics at this mountain resort, Trump’s agenda goes down like a lead balloon. One after another leaders from Europe and the rest of the world have lined up to reaffirm the merits of international co-operation, and a multilateral approach to common social and economic challenges. From India’s Narendra Modi and Canada’s Justin Trudeau, to Europe’s Angela Merkel and Paolo Gentiloni, one after another, they’ve all appeared to take aim at Trump and what they see as a dangerously nationalistic, protectionist policy agenda. “We think that shutting ourselves off, isolating ourselves, will not lead us into a good future. Protectionism is not the answer,” the German Chancellor insisted. But in large parts of the business community represented here at Davos, Trump will receive if not quite a hero’s welcome, a rather more pleasing reception. The economy is flying, the stock market regularly records new all-time highs, taxes and regulation are being cut, and global trade is growing again. For business, there’s little here to object to, and much to celebrate. After the long years of famine, the world economy seems finally to be putting the financial crisis behind it. Whether this is wholly down to Trump is, of course, debatable, but coincidentally or not, animal spirits have revived with a vengeance since his election. determined people. Listening to what Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary, and Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, have to say about the America First policy agenda, it’s hard not to be impressed. These are straight talking, sensible people, and there is much to agree with in what they have to say. They are not against free trade, but they do want fair trade. Rightly in some respects, they insist that the playing field has been stacked against them. America has every right unilaterally to impose tariffs on subsidised by saying that a trade war is already with us. The “difference is, US troops are now coming to the ramparts”.
None of this is to welcome an intensification of trade tensions, which could indeed end badly for everyone.