NZ winner looking probable already

Format may have changed and teams dumped but Kiwis look as strong as ever

It’s early to be certain, or definitive but the last few weeks of Super Rugby are once again going to boil down to a ferocious scrap between New Zealand’s four leading teams.

The format has changed, the dud teams have been dropped and while that has rejuvenated the Sharks and Rebels, and to a lesser extent the Bulls and Reds, who can’t see that after eight weeks the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Crusaders and Highlanders are in a league of their own?

One of these four is going to be the ultimate winner and in that respect, Super Rugby has seen everything change and yet everything stay the same.

Kiwi dominance was the story in 2016 and 2017, and it is once again tracking as the main narrative of 2018.

The Hurricanes, almost paradoxically, failed to play anywhere near their best on Friday night in Napier and yet did more to establish their champion credentials than when they were romping past the Crusaders and Highlanders in previous weeks.

It took resilience, belief, perseverance, composure and phenomenal commitment for the Hurricanes to not just stay in a contest where they were second best in most aspects, but to conjure a winning try five minutes after the hooter.

That’s what great sides do — they find a way to hang in there and deliver when it matters and what really made the victory so impressive was that it came without Beauden Barrett and, for half the game, TJ Perenara.

They have shown their ability to grind and on Friday, they will meet the Chiefs, the undoubted masters of resilience.

An enormous injury toll has prevented the Chiefs from yet unleashing their full attacking artillery and finding their most potent form. And yet they have fallen to just one defeat.

That was threatening to become two losses when, for 32 minutes on Saturday night, they lay siege to the Blues line in the second half but couldn’t score the try they needed to take the lead.

A lesser side would have let frustration take hold. A lesser side would have allowed the perplexing refereeing of Paul Williams to send them off track and play in a fug.

But not the Chiefs. Captain Sam Cane simply refused to be anything other than clear-headed, calm and convinced that the Blues would crack under the intolerable pressure. And he was right.

“From experience, you can’t allow frustration to start creeping into your brain, otherwise it just dominates and affects the way you play the rest of the game,” Cane said.

“We were creating opportunities and not finishing them off, and it felt like sometimes we weren’t getting the calls that we really wanted, and the combination of those two things. . .

“A couple of times, we just brought the key decision makers in and said ‘lads, let’s not get frustrated, we’ll get our crack and we’ll make the most of it when we do’.”

Patience, composure and a massive scrummaging effort won the day for the Chiefs and, like the Hurricanes, what opponents are beginning to ask is how these two can be beaten when they have so much offensive weaponry and a fighter’s instincts to survive.

It’s the same with the Crusaders and Highlanders — they both have a will to win and the belief they can make it happen.

The former also have key players to bring back into the fold, such as Richie Mo’unga, Israel Dagg, Owen Franks and Joe Moody and when they have them up to speed, they will be at another level again.

They may even see Kieran Read back in action some time before the end of the campaign and while it may seem that the Hurricanes are destined to win their second crown, that picture may have changed by the end of May when the Crusaders are in fifth gear.

Actually, there probably is enough reason already to be definitive — there will be a Kiwi winner of Super Rugby in 2018.