Scepticism vote will be free, fair
Zimbabwe has changed. The question is by how much
Zimbabwe votes in the first election since Robert Mugabe’s 38-year reign was ended by a coup in November.
Public demand for meaningful change has been clear ever since thousands took to the streets of Harare to party when news broke of Mugabe’s arrest by the military on November 14, and both the main presidential candidates are vying for the mantle of reformer.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa, 75, the veteran of the liberation war who served Mugabe loyally for decades, says only he has the credibility, experience and influence with the army and the deep state to deliver that change. He told a crowd in Mubaira: “We need transparency. We have a new dispensation. Now we have a united Zimbabwe, let us commit to peace in the country.”
Nelson Chamisa, 40, the lawyer and lay preacher leading the MDC Alliance, says those with recent memories will know that to be utter rubbish. Mnangagwa, he says, is knee-deep in the blood of thousands murdered by Mugabe’s regime and he is as culpable as anyone for economic mismanagement of the country.
“Nothing has changed,” Chamisa said. “He is telling a very nice and very tall story to the international community. And unfortunately some in the international community are buying it.”
Something has changed in Zimbabwe and it is not just the vanishing of the police roadblocks that routinely used to shake down motorists for bribes. An unfamiliar air of normality has settled over the country, and people are talking to one another without wondering whether Mugabe’s Central Intelligence Organisation is listening in. Chamisa has been able to campaign openly and ferociously, and has for the first time penetrated rural areas once closed to the opposition. Debates have been held between rival candidates, international media have been granted access, and there has been very little violence or voter intimidation.
But one TV station, four “public” radio stations and four private stations are owned or controlled by Zanu PF-aligned media houses.
Diplomats and senior Zanu PF figures say that the international community has presented Mnangagwa with a stark choice. If he delivers tangible political change (the first test being a free and fair — or at least credible — election), Zimbabwe has effectively been promised a return to the Commonwealth and relief from US sanctions that block IMF loans. However, Michelle Gavin and Todd Moss of the US council on foreign relations said after a recent visit to Zimbabwe that “what we witnessed was more political theatre than good faith and that the US should be deeply wary”.