Who would want to be a banker now?
Spare a thought for the bankers. Okay, maybe not the most popular intro ever written. But you have to wonder what the winds of change sweeping through the financial markets will mean for the thousands of workers employed in the industry.
From the adoption of artificial intelligence and automation to the tightening up of regulation and pressure on executive remuneration, the future for the profession is increasingly uncertain.
This week’s verdict on New Zealand’s banking culture and conduct was pretty much as expected — there’s nothing particularly problematic, but there’s no room for complacency.
If something can go wrong it probably will go wrong, as Australia’s banking industry is dealing with now.
To that end the FMA and Reserve Bank are recommending, among other things, New Zealand banks stop providing financial incentives for staff selling products while encouraging them to make sure what does get sold is right for the customer.
Some tighter regulation may be needed to improve standards and fill gaps in the legislation recently exposed across the Tasman.
Removing sales-based remuneration is somewhat of a vexed issue in an industry that has historically competed by offering high total compensation. There is an argument that the unintended consequence is the disincentivising of talented finance professionals. That’s why the regulators are treading carefully.
While the report urges banks to move away from short-term sales targets, it doesn’t say they have to make the recommended changes. Those that don’t will have to explain how they will strengthen their control systems to address risk of poor conduct.
The problem is that in this industry there’s a fine line between rewarding staff who work hard and look after customers’ needs professionally, and creating an incentive-driven environment that leads to sales staff shoving products down the throat of someone who doesn’t need it.
Unfortunately when the line gets crossed by a few, the whole industry must bear the consequences.
The clampdown on commissions comes as the financial services profession braces for disruption from new technology such as artificial intelligence and automation.
ANZ chairman Sir John Key spoke of this last week, noting his bank’s launch of “Jamie”, an AI invention developed by Soul Machines, as an example of the change going on.
While Key doesn’t predict armageddon for the financial workforce, he does say there’s no getting away from the fact that labour markets are going to dramatically change because of AI.
Just how much is uncertain, although some experts reckon up to half of banking jobs in some countries could be wiped out over the next decade. Others say the innovation will create an equal amount of opportunities for humans and anything that requires judgment will still require a human touch.
The changing workforce is now dominating boardroom discussions.
According to an EY study published in April, remuneration committees have expanded their remit to include talent and management development more broadly.
This to the extent that some remuneration committees on overseas companies are now focused 75 per cent of their time on talent issues with just 25 per cent on compensation and incentives.
And it’s not just frontline retail banking that is facing the squeeze.
Shrinking capital markets and the rise of fund supermarkets have already put local brokers and investment bankers on the backburner as far as solid job prospects go.
A leading investment banker told me recently that in some ways he was fortunate to be at the tail end of his career as he was unsure what the future held for the industry.
He has a point.
Young stockbrokers and bankers are less likely to be incentivised in the same way their predecessors were. The product they sell is more vanilla and the customer they sell to is less personable.
The industry will always find a way to make money, but the lure just isn’t quite the same as it used to be. Except maybe for the CEO.