The Brexit May-Trix

Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said May’s survival would not solve the Conservative Party’s Brexit problems.

“Is the problem actually the Prime Minister? The problem is what it has always been. Any deal that could pass muster with the EU won’t pass muster with Tory Eurosceptics.”

Commentators were quick to draw comparisons to Margaret Thatcher, the original Iron Lady and Britain’s only other female Prime Minister, who won a vote of confidence on the first ballot but resigned anyway in 1990.

In Brussels, where preparations were under way for a summit of European leaders starting overnight for which Brexit is only one issue among many, diplomats were measured in their reaction to the British drama. Many have long braced for a challenge to May’s leadership, and although the British instability added to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal, several diplomats said there was little they could do to sway events in London.

If anything, the leadership challenge hardened resolve among the remaining EU nations to insist on an ironclad backup plan to preserve a border-free frontier between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Diplomats increasingly doubt they can rely on assurances from any British leader, because that leader could quickly be replaced.

European leaders are stepping up their planning for the chaos that would be created by Britain’s crashing out of the EU with no deal in place at all. That could also lead to the imposition of border controls at the Irish border, meaning that both sides have motivations to solve the issue.

“We do not have any intention of further changing the withdrawal agreement,” Chancellor Angela Merkel told the German Parliament yesterday. “That is the common position of the 27 member states.”

Is the problem actually the Prime Minister? The problem is what it has always been. Any deal that could pass muster with the EU won’t pass muster with Tory Eurosceptics. Tim Bale