Nightmare named Brexit continues

If a change of Prime Minister, or even a change of government, would make any difference to Britain’s Brexit mess, Britain would be lucky. But no alternative leader, or party, has proposed a better strategy than the inconclusive plan negotiated with the European Union by Theresa May. Yesterday she pleaded with Conservative Party MPs to let her see it through, promising to stand down sometime after March 29 when Britain will cease to be a member of the EU.

This is the best outcome for her, the party and for Britain. May probably realised a long time ago that Brexit would be the end of her career. She dedicated herself to carrying out the will of the people as expressed in the 2016 referendum and tried to do so with the least damage to Britain’s economy. Her deal with the EU has satisfied neither side but it was the best European leaders would offer, a position they underlined when she made a last-ditch approach to them this week.

With the departure date now just three months away, Britain faces a choice between May’s deal and no deal, the so called “crashing out” option. Crashing out means customs barriers on all the goods that cross the English Channel and the border dividing Ireland. It means London will struggle to remain Europe’s financial capital. The ease of travel, especially budget air travel, will lose the EU agreements that permit it. And much else.

Brexit has become the nightmare many in Britain predicted. May’s deal would do little more than buy time, during which Britain remained inside the EU’s customs union and therefore, said “hard Brexit” advocates, subject to the rules of the club while no longer having membership rights to have a say in its decisions.

It remains possible that May’s deal will be rejected by Parliament if the 117 Tories who voted against her yesterday side with the Labour Party on a vote in the House of Commons. In that event the Government would probably fall and crashing out would be the only option unless a new government, probably Labour, could quickly negotiate a postponement with the EU. But Labour would have needed to make that intention clear before the election and that could cost it hard Brexit votes on its own side.

Seeing no way out of this impasse, some in Britain have been calling for the whole mess to be put back in front of the people at a second referendum. It is possible that enough of the voters who scoffed at predictions of economic damage in June 2016 have now realised their mistake. But even if that was the result of a second vote, it would hardly be satisfactory for Britain’s future. Britain would remain as a reluctant member of the community, a captive of circumstances rather than a committed partner in the European project.

The other option is for enough Labour MPs to support May’s deal when it comes back to Parliament, knowing it would remain May’s unpopular deal, and that the Tories would be bitterly divided over it and unlikely to unite behind a new leader. But neither party can agree on what it should do and so Britain’s nightmare continues.