All Blacks coach to spell out his future

If nothing else, Hansen has had a great run.

Steve Hansen will make an announcement this morning on his future as All Blacks coach beyond next year's Rugby World Cup.

For the best part of the last 18 months, the odds have been short to the point of being almost closed, that he will be standing down.

But as much as it has appeared to be a fait accompli, Hansen has never quite shut the door on the prospect of staying on.

There have also been a number of significant statements made in the past that have to be considered in plotting the map of the future.

The day after the All Blacks won the 2015 World Cup, Hansen announced he was 90 per cent certain he would be moving on after the Lions tour in 2017.

Perhaps that was a negotiating ploy to go public about his probable exit at a time when his star could not have been shining brighter, but then he had argued consistently that the All Blacks coach should not be contracted in sync with World Cup cycles.

His belief is that the World Cup should not be the ultimate and in essence only means of evaluating a coaching tenure and that change should come mid-cycle.

It's a battle he has won as NZ Rugby have told him, it is believed, that there is a two-year extension on the table if he wants it to take him through to 2021 — presumably with the intention of handing over control two years before the 2023 World Cup.

So the picture now remains as conflicted and as unpredictable as it has since the day after the last World Cup final, to everyone except Hansen.

He said after the All Blacks last match this year against Italy in Rome that he has been sure of his plan for months. That in itself provides no clue about his intention and nor does the announcement by Ireland coach Joe Schmidt that he will be retiring from coaching after the World Cup.

This is a mystery without clues as such, more logical denouncements that tend to support the theory Hansen will be standing down this time next year.

The job takes an enormous toll — has an all-consuming quality about it which is tolerable, but not forever.

The intense media scrutiny Hansen can withstand, making it clear in Rome that he won't be bullied into selections or strategies that are not his.

The pressure of the big games he still loves. The match day tension, the uncertainty and excitement of it all, the chance to see the hard work come together still gets the adrenaline pumping and his competitive juices flowing.

But the amount of work that has to go into get to that point is draining and relentless and it comes at the expense of normality.

The sacrifice is huge. It is not just the days, weeks, months away from home and parenting via Skype. It is not just the endless phone calls and meetings – the need to constantly be across what is happening in the lives of his players and management team.

It is the totality of it all — the feeling of being owned and in demand.

The job has hidden demands and having been head coach for eight years and with the All Blacks since 2004, if Hansen wants his life back then it wouldn't be before time.

Which brings into focus the longswirling rumour — it dates back to the start of this year — he's set to take a new role in 2020 as director of rugby.

On one level this stacks up as credible. He could assume in this new role, some of the responsibilities of his current post.

As director of rugby he could be the fulcrum between Super Rugby clubs, the All Blacks and NZR — preside over a more universal system of player management. He could be more involved in player contracting, talent identification and coach mentoring.

It all makes sense but for the fact that Hansen would be handing over the parts of his existing role that he loves to someone else while he picked up the jobs that he hasn't given the impression to date quite light his fire in the same way.

There's a suspicion he would love there to be a director of rugby to free him up to focus more on the pure art of selecting and coaching. So as much as it is easy to believe the rumour mill is right, it is also easy to dismiss it.

Hence we await his news none the wiser yet skewed to anticipating confirmation he's standing down.

What ultimately tips the balance that way is the sense the time is right.

And if nothing else, Hansen has had a great run that will be tainted but not dented by an unsuccessful World Cup campaign next year.

Few coaches get to leave a job on their terms, with their legacy secure and for a man whose reign has been defined by the phrase risk and reward. The former would heavily outweigh the latter if he chooses to stay past the World Cup.