Poll shows property optimism

New Zealanders have brushed off concerns that a capital gains tax will dent the property market, with the results of a new poll showing most Kiwis believe house prices will rise over the next 12 months.

The Colliers International research found more respondents expect median house prices to rise than those who expect it to decline.

But it also indicated less confidence in the market — the tally of those expecting rises had gone from a net positive of 23 per cent in December to 15 per cent now.

The results also showed Kiwis were gloomy about house prices in Auckland, with most respondents expecting them to fall. Real Estate Institute house sale figures for last month showed 17.9 per cent year on year slump in Auckland sales.

The Colliers survey was done during the release of the Tax Working Group’s final Future of Tax report, which recommended New Zealand adopt a capital gains tax (CGT) for investment properties.

When asked how much a CGT would affect sale prices, 42 per cent indicated fewer than 5 per cent, while 37 per cent expected more.

Just over a fifth expected a CGT would have no impact on prices.

Chris Dibble, Colliers research and consulting director, said all regions recorded a lower overall result than the previous survey.

Queenstown held its top spot for the tenth consecutive quarter, with a net positive 39 per cent of those polled expecting house price growth, he said. Tauranga/Mt Maunganui stayed in second with 30 per cent, while Wellington held on to third with 26 per cent.

Dibble said median price expectations in Auckland overall were negative for the first time, with a net negative 10 per cent.