Pakistan need miracle for NZ to miss out

A cricketing miracle is required for the Black Caps to miss out on the semifinals at the Cricket World Cup.

A 119-run defeat to England yesterday was a third straight loss on the trot, but if there are any small positives to take from the performance, it’s that they were competitive enough to leave Pakistan requiring a historic victory to knock them out of the semifinals.

Pakistan can draw level on points with New Zealand with a win over Bangladesh today, but the Black Caps hold a net run rate of 0.175, while Pakistan are on -0.792. Firstly, they need to win the toss and bat first — if Bangladesh win the toss and opt to bat, there is no scenario where Pakistan qualify for the semifinals. Similarly, if Pakistan bat first and score fewer than 308, they also cannot qualify.

Their chances move from impossible to, well, simply inconceivable, if they put in a stunning performance while batting first. Score 350, and they have to win by 312 runs; 400 would require a victory of 316 runs, bowling Bangladesh out for 84 or fewer, while reaching 450 would need them to bowl Bangladesh out for 129 or fewer — and win by 321 runs.

All of those margins would double as the biggest win in ODI history — which is the Black Caps’ 290-run win over Ireland in 2008 — while Pakistan’s biggest ODI victory is a 255-run victory, also over Ireland, in 2016.

Their biggest victory over Bangladesh is by 233 runs, while the largest win at Lord’s, today’s venue, is 202 runs.

So — get ready to watch the Black Caps play in Manchester on Tuesday — against either Australia or India, with their opponent still to be confirmed in the final group games. Unless you believe in miracles.