Path to 1000 Guineas winds through Ellerslie for talented fillies
The road to 1000 Guineas glory may run through Ellerslie next month.
And for the favourite it could even stop there. Which means the market for the classic should be treated with caution by punters.
Aretha held on to beat another seasonal debutante in Bavella in the $70,000 Gold Trail Stakes at Hastings on Saturday, with the runner-up’s late dive having almost everybody on track thinking she had won.
“I even went over and shook Andrew Forsman’s hand (trainer of Aretha) and said well done on a great race,” said Bavella’s trainer Lance Noble, thinking he had won.
“I had to then go back and shake his hand again and congratulate him. I could have sworn we had won but it was one of those things.”
While Bavella had the late momentum up after being wide for most of the race, Aretha had her head at the perfect downward angle at the millisecond she needed to get home. .
The margin could be indicative of what this three-year-old fillies season may bring, especially as last season’s top seed Probabeel is racing in Sydney and is unlikely to be a factor in the Filly of the Year series here, with the Karaka Classic her most likely domestic target.
That still leaves enormous depth in the crop and most are now looking for the smoothest path to the Guineas at Riccarton and that is shaping as the $70,000 Partners Life Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie on October 26.
The trainers of all the major players out of Saturday’s group three indicated Ellerslie was their most likely next stop, giving them plenty of time to get over the hard race and still three weeks before the $300,000 Guineas on November 16.
But while the trainers of Aretha, Noire (third), Jennifer Eccles (fourth) and the luckless Kali (seventh) are all eying the Soliloquy as a stepping stone to Riccarton, for Noble it could ignite or end Bavella’s campaign.
“To be honest we are not sure whether she will get the 1600m (of the Guineas),” said Noble.
“So we will probably go to the Soliloquy at 1400m and that might tell us whether she is a Guineas horse.
“Sometimes even if they aren’t really 1600m horses you can get away with it against your own age group and sex but that might not be the case this season because the fillies look pretty strong so it could be a really good Guineas.”
Translation: don’t be backing Bavella at her $7 favourite’s quote for the Guineas just yet. Noble thinks his three-year-old filly winner from Saturday in Manchu, who beat some talented types at just her second start, could actually develop into the more natural 1000 Guineas prospect and will attempt to keep her and Bavella on different paths.
Aretha was so brave after leading fresh-up on Saturday she looks the sort of filly who will cop a tough 1600m at Riccarton while trainer Tony Pike can’t wait to get Loire there.
“She has been the one who has always looked a 1000 Guineas horse to me,” said Pike.
Pike went into Saturday’s Gold Trail booming with confidence around Kali but after she got into tight quarters at the 400m mark she is still looking for clear air.