Rugby ready to change
New competitions could be in place by next year, with tiertwo teams to benefit
The next 12 months are likely to determine the future of international rugby for the next 12 years. Soundings from unions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres suggest that test rugby is facing perhaps its most seminal moment since the game turned professional in 1995.
After a brief hiatus following the collapse of the negotiations over a radical world league proposal last year, the momentum, in large part due to the success of the World Cup in Japan, is growing again.
Change is in the air and minds are open. There is a widespread acceptance that the global season needs to be improved, with greater alignment and more meaningful matches for those outside the Six Nations and Rugby Championship.
There is a desire, too, to change the international window for the women’s Six Nations, so it does not clash with the men’s version, opening up the potential for a new broadcasting deal and title sponsor.
The fact France’s latest women’s Six Nations matches, against England and Italy, attracted peak audiences of 1.9 million and 1.2 million respectively on French terrestrial television, has opened eyes to the potential growth if the competition was shown across Europe free-to-air.
The injection of private equity is also playing a part. The Six Nations expects to conclude its deal with CVC within weeks, which should lead to a $600 million investment for a 15 per cent share in commercial rights.
With the private equity firm also holding a stake in Premiership Rugby and the Pro14, the investment is seen by many as significant, not just because of the desire to grow the commercial value, but in providing the opportunity to collectively shape the international and club game, at least in Europe.
Ultimately, for the Six Nations unions, to keep control of a championship that had been built over 135 years was paramount. There were fears they would have lost control of the decision of what would have happened to the championship and there was seen to have been a risk it could have been diluted.
If there is change now, it is control of the unions, even if the CVC deal goes through. Reports also suggest interest from private-equity companies for a stake in the South African Rugby Union.
Last week, the Six Nations took the major step to agree to aggregate broadcasting rights, an achievement
Change is in the air and minds are open. There is a widespread acceptance that the global season needs to be improved.
in itself. The hope is that it will lead to a significant upturn in broadcasting revenues, even if it appears that there remains a majority view on the Six Nations council to retain the competition on terrestrial television.
The biggest driver for change, however, is likely to come in May, when elections are held for the chairman and vice-chairman of World Rugby.
Current chairman Bill Beaumont is standing for a second four-year term, with Bernard Laporte as vicechairman. Others have yet to declare their hand, but talks are in the air and conversations within and between unions about potential manifestos are taking place.
Beaumont has already declared his hand — enhancing the tier-two competitions would be front and centre of his second term.
There are no talks scheduled but it is expected when the new chairman is elected, with a global mandate, talks will begin in mid-2020.
Yet even with this push for change, the negotiations have to deal with certain realities. The Sanzaar countries are locked in to a mediarights deal to the end of 2025. Recent speculation of South Africa’s interest in joining the Six Nations will strengthen their hand, with Sanzaar set to go to the market soon for a new rights deal, although both the Six Nations and South Africa union have denied holding discussions about joining the European competition.
Even if there was interest from the Six Nations and another union about expansion, there would be so many hurdles — including likely opposition from the Premiership clubs.
The complexity of the discussions, when they do get under way, mean any sort of breakthrough will take months, given the sequence of events required. Yet that does not mean change is not coming.
The first significant step will come next month, when the World Rugby workshop, established to explore the identifying key principles of a potential and sustainable global competition model for teams outside of the Six Nations and Rugby Championship, is due to report its findings.
There have to be conversations with the clubs and the players’ unions. Questions remain about the future of the mid-year tours, tier-two competitions and emerging nations. Japan’s future will be a key cog in establishing the new world order.
The ambition is for the new competition to be in place by 2021, and the model will go to the World Rugby council meeting in May.
That piece of the jigsaw would pave the way for a potential new tournament for the end-of-year tests in Europe involving the top sides in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on finishing positions from the Six Nations and Rugby Championship.
Just a year after the collapse of the world league, it seems international rugby is finally ready to change.