Why National will form the next government

Until recently, questioning the inevitability of a second term of office for the Labour/NZ First Coalition Government has been treated as heresy by most political commentators.

After all, Jacinda is hugely popular — so popular that there is no serious contender to her in the preferred prime minister rankings.

Add to that the fact that you have to go right back to 1975 to find the last time a Government has been kicked out after just one term and their confidence seems justified.

Sure, NZ First is currently polling below 5 per cent, but Winston always pulls it out of the hat in election year and will do so again this time — or so the narrative goes.

On first blush, this reasoning looks rock solid — but is it? I’m a strong believer that the numbers will generally tell the true story, so let’s examine the claims:

Despite being a favourite of the media

— the preferred prime minister ratings are virtually irrelevant because we vote for parties not presidents. This means that the important number is the party vote and most recent polls show National ahead as the most popular party.

The claim regarding the inevitability of second terms is more interesting. It’s true that every party that won an election between 1975 and 2014 went on to form a Government and subsequently went on to a second, and sometimes third term.

However, this isn’t what happened in 2017.

National won that election, but wasn’t able to form a government because NZ First chose to go with Labour. This was the first time in the MMP era the most popular party was unable to form a Government and means that the traditional wisdom around the inevitability of a second term no longer applies.

The third claim — that NZ First will stage a miraculous comeback from its low poll ratings — also isn’t supported by history. NZ First’s worst election results both occurred during an election following a term when it was in coalition — 4.25 per cent in 1999 following a term in coalition with National, and 4.07 per cent in 2008 following its coalition with Labour.

This history, coupled with controversies dogging the party this term, and an announcement by Simon Bridges that he will not work with them, all suggest it is extremely unlikely NZ First will make it back into Parliament.

This means that Labour has a big mountain to climb if it is to achieve a second term.

Both Labour and the Greens would each have to substantially increase their share of the party vote in order to make up the NZ First votes that put them into power in 2017.

Certainly this has been done before — Labour actually increased its winning 1999 vote in 2002, and National did the same in 2011 — but these were both extremely popular first-term governments with solid wins and a track record of achievements.

Few but the most partisan would claim the same of Labour in this term, where flagship policies have mostly been unmitigated disasters.

The highest party vote Labour has achieved in the past 30 years is 41 per cent — and that was under Helen Clark at the height of her powers. Ardern is no Clark.

History is all on National’s side. Remember, this is a party that achieved 47 per cent of the party vote in 2011 and 2014. If it can mop up the bulk of the almost 3 per cent of votes that went to TOP, United Future and the Conservative Party in 2017, it could achieve similar numbers in 2020.

This, combined with Act’s support and the lion’s share of the reallocated “wasted vote”, should be enough for the Nats.