Hokkaido’s second wave is a cautionary tale

A northern region of Japan is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus infections — and deaths — that experts say could have been avoided if its state of emergency measures had not been lifted too early.

The island of Hokkaido had been held up as a model of how to control the spread of the virus, but it has now become a case study for the impact the disease can have if a lockdown is relaxed too soon.

Experts say they hope other cities and nations toying with the idea of lifting restrictions on travel, work and schools can learn from the experience.

Naomichi Suzuki, the prefecture’s governor, declared a state of emergency on February 29 in response to a surge in coronavirus cases, all of which could be traced back to the Sapporo Snow Festival at the beginning of that month.

Despite the state of emergency, 118 people were being treated for the virus by March 12, making Hokkaido the worst hit of all Japan’s 47 prefectures.

In tandem with the state of emergency — under which schools were closed, large-scale gatherings were cancelled and people were officially “encouraged” to stay at home — the local government introduced aggressive measures to trace and isolate those who had been in contact with victims. The approach appeared to have been effective and, just a week later, the number of new cases had fallen to one or two a day and the authorities lifted the state of emergency on March 19.

With hindsight, experts agree, it was too early and, just 26 days later and after 135 new infections in a week, the lockdown was reimposed.