The incredible bouncing sharemarket
As real economy slumps, stock prices are a long way back from their low point
Sharemarket watchers are scratching their heads over the disconnect between the real economy and the recent bounce in share prices. Economists are predicting the worst is yet to come, with New Zealand’s unemployment level expected to rise to 9 or 10 per cent from record lows of 4 per cent, and business failures aplenty.
But the NZX/S&P50 is now just under 8 per cent down from where it started trading in January, around the same point it was in September/ October last year.
After losing 14.8 per cent in the March quarter the market has bounced back strongly from its March 23 low point — hit just before New Zealand entered level 4 lockdown.
In the US, the S&P500 likewise is now down less than 10 per cent since the start of the year and has also been on a strong rally since March 23.
Mark Brown, chief investment officer at Devon Funds Management, says it’s a real conundrum.
“We are looking post Covid-19 and globally it is a very different economic climate, yet the market is back to levels seen in October last year.” Central banks lowering cash rates and “printing money” through quantitative easing is being seen as a backstop for the market. Brown said another reason was the lack of alternatives for investors looking for a return on their money.
“If you think of cash rates globally, there is just no attraction, at the end of the day people need a return of some form.”
The problem is that company earnings forecasts are likely to be out of date or unknown in many cases, and dividend payouts are likely to be cut or suspended. “There is a great level of uncertainty. But for certain, I think the trajectory for earnings and dividends has to be lower.”
Sam Dickie, senior portfolio manager at Fisher Funds, says the S&P500 fell 36 per cent from its alltime high to its recent low point on March 23 but is now just 13 per cent below that high point.
Dickie says that until recently the rally was led by high-growth tech giants Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon, and defensive stocks such as Berkshire Hathaway and Johnson & Johnson.
“From the 23 March bottom until 21 April, that rally was led by highquality growth companies and defensives. In other words, some of the largest companies in the S&P500 and the world.
“So up until that date, the S&P500 was not telling us that the economy is fine and that corporate earnings will be fine. Rather, it was telling us that the largest companies in the world will trade through this crisis just fine and in fact will likely take market share off smaller, weaker competitors.”
But from April 21, said Dickie, the rally had started to broaden out with cyclical stocks starting to outperform others. “That coincided with the bottoming in oil, the ultimate cyclical indicator.”
Taking flight
One stock which has really surprised on the upside has been Air New Zealand, jumping from an 80c low to $1.305 (at Wednesday’s close), putting it on track to be the best performer this month in the NZX50.
That’s despite no confirmation yet on when the wider public will be allowed to travel domestically again, nor when international markets will open again.
Market players point to a lot of small trades, saying retail investors appear to be having a punt on the stock.
Apart from the lack of potential for revenue, also weighing on Air New Zealand is a $900 million loan to
Government which it must pay back. Investors face the risk that it could be converted to equity in the future, diluting any shareholding outside of the Government’s stake.
New chief executive Greg Foran is said to be handling the situation well, but one can only imagine he is looking back wistfully at the share price of former employer Walmart, which was trading at US$118 a share before the Covid-19 crisis and has since hit an all-time high of US$125.
Capital raising
With markets on the rise again, investment bankers will be sure to encourage companies thinking of a capital raising to seize the moment.
One market player even suggested Air New Zealand would do better to replace its Government loan with a capital raising on a much more favourable interest rate.
Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Sam Trethewey says companies will be monitoring things very closely during level 3, to see how revenue picks up.
Trethewey said investors had been trying to anticipate which companies were going to raise capital, leading to share price underperformance before a raising. Auckland Airport, Kathmandu and Vista’s share prices had all bounced back since raising capital.
“All three are trading at premiums to where their capital raise was.” But that had also resulted in heavy dilution for shareholders who did not take part.
Names being talked about as potential capital raising candidates include SkyCity, Z Energy, Fletcher Building, Metro Glass and Steel & Tube.
Casino operator SkyCity remains largely closed, so it will be burning through cash quickly, although it does have a good stockpile.
One analyst suggested this week that the company may be more likely to turn to its bankers for help rather than raising new equity.
While Z Energy has still been operating as an essential service, its revenue has been very low, with most Kiwis ordered to stay home and little demand for aviation fuel.
Investors will be keen to know how much fuel revenue will pick up under level 3 as people fill their tanks for the first time in five weeks.
If you think of cash rates globally, there is just no attraction, at the end of the day — people need a return of some form.
Mark Brown, Devon Funds Management