Elimination, PM, but not as we know it

Most people would have been surprised to hear that when epidemiologists refer to “elimination” of a disease they do not mean its eradication. The words are practically synonymous in ordinary language and no science serves the public interest well when it uses confusing and potentially misleading terms.

For several weeks into the level 4 lockdown New Zealanders were led to believe that, uniquely in the world, we were aiming for “elimination” of the coronavirus while the best others were likely to achieve was “suppression”. Suppression aimed to reduce the rate of infection, or bend the curve rather than merely flatten it, “mitigation” in epidemiologese.

Near the end of level 4 the Prime Minister explained the goal of elimination did not mean no new cases were being found, it meant no tolerance of new cases. When a case appeared the person would be quarantined and all known contacts would be traced, tested and, if infected, ordered into isolation for 14 days, which sounds like the policy other countries call suppression.

If any New Zealanders are disappointed we seem not to be as unique as we hoped, they ought to be careful what they hope for. Even if eradication was realistic — and epidemiologists clearly think it is not — we would be alone. Our distance from other countries does indeed enable us to keep some widespread diseases and pests away from our farmed animals and plants.

But if we managed to do the same with a highly contagious virus that has crossed from an animal to humans, we would be living in lonely and, not so splendid, isolation.

To be Covid-free when the rest of the world was dealing with sporadic outbreaks would further enhance the image of our food products in export markets but the country is already seen in those markets as a fresh, clean, wholesome and healthy place. Our appeal to tourism would be enhanced in the same way but that would be of no value if we feared to let any visitors come here.

Tourism had become an “export” to rival our largest in overseas earnings and it is not going to recover soon. But bringing foreign students to our schools and tertiary institutions should be able to be resuscitated. As universities are pointing out, a fortnight in quarantine would not be wasted by students who could do preparatory reading.

Travel for many purposes is necessary to sustain international business and trade connections on which New Zealand depends. With just 5 million people we lack the scale of markets and capital required to produce the range of products at affordable prices that gives us the living standard we expect. The Labour Party needs to resist the pressure from its Government partners for an elusive self-sufficiency, whether for a “green economy” or the protected industrial nursery favoured by Winston Peters.

Covid-19 is a global problem, there will be a global solution. If New Zealand’s policy of “elimination” is in line with the response of our trading partners that is exactly where we want to be.