Flare-ups too close to home
The old sense of New Zealand being a comfortable distance away from conflicts and disputes is well and truly gone. Two flare-ups last week between North and South Korea on the one hand and China and India on the other were unwelcome jolts, all too close to home.
In the previous couple of decades, the Middle East and Europe were the main theatres of war and terror attacks. America’s strategic tussles focused on Russia and non-state adversaries.
But in a pivot that began in former President Barack Obama’s second term, America started focusing more on Asia.
The region is now primarily where the fault lines of the US-China rivalry grate against each other, forcing smaller countries to weave between a declining power and a rising one. Territorial disputes on land and in the South China Sea have mounted. The region bristles with nationalistic and militaristic nuclear powers — China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.
The coronavirus pandemic appears to be accelerating geopolitical shifts and tensions. Countries in the region and beyond have been hit hard economically, causing domestic pressures.
Both China and the US have suffered blows to their reputations. Beijing was accused of a lack of transparency after the virus was first detected. And behind its gleaming superpower hardware, the US has been seen to be unable to tidy its own house.
China has more room than ever to flex its muscle and some Chinese officials have taken a more aggressive approach to critics of the country. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the end of May that China would now push back against “deliberate insults”. Beijing and Canberra, in particular, have been at odds over Australian calls for an inquiry into the coronavirus’ origins.
Last week in a Himalayan valley, at least 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a bloody brawl with Chinese soldiers. It was the deadliest border clash there in nearly half a century.
Chinese casualties are unknown. Both sides have since spoken of reducing tensions but the outlook seems freshly unstable.
In President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, China and India have two of the world’s most important leaders. India has been developing closer ties with the US and its allies Japan and Australia through the Quad strategic forum. And China has been investing in Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
After more than three years of “America first” and prickly relations with traditional allies, Trump’s re-election bid will be closely watched in Asia. The Financial Times reported that “some countries traditionally aligned with the US could drift towards China if they conclude that Washington neither respects their economic interests nor protects their security”.
Bloomberg reported that current and former Chinese officials believed Trump was beneficial to Beijing as “the erosion of America’s post-war alliance network would outweigh any damage to China from continued trade disputes and geopolitical instability”.
We have a front-row seat on what happens next.
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